BackgroundAntiretroviral Treatment (ART) significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa.MethodsWe model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15–49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 (current practice), CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011–2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses.ResultsExpanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm3 prevents an estimated 265,000 (17%) and 1.3 million (15%) new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45%) and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9–194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%.ConclusionIncreasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.
In 2007 an estimated 33 million people were living with HIV; 67% resided in sub-Saharan Africa, with 35% in eight countries alone. In 2007, there were about 1.4 million HIV-positive tuberculosis cases. Globally, approximately 4 million people had been given highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) by the end of 2008, but in 2007, an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of HAART and 2.7 million more became infected with HIV.Although there has been unprecedented investment in confronting HIV/AIDS - the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates $13.8 billion was spent in 2008 - a key challenge is how to address the HIV/AIDS epidemic given limited and potentially shrinking resources. Economic disparities may further exacerbate human rights issues and widen the increasingly divergent approaches to HIV prevention, care and treatment.HIV transmission only occurs from people with HIV, and viral load is the single greatest risk factor for all modes of transmission. HAART can lower viral load to nearly undetectable levels. Prevention of mother to child transmission offers proof of the concept of HAART interrupting transmission, and observational studies and previous modelling work support using HAART for prevention. Although knowing one's HIV status is key for prevention efforts, it is not known with certainty when to start HAART.Building on previous modelling work, we used an HIV/AIDS epidemic of South African intensity to explore the impact of testing all adults annually and starting persons on HAART immediately after they are diagnosed as HIV positive. This theoretical strategy would reduce annual HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people within 10 years and it would reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. To explore HAART as a prevention strategy, we recommend further discussions to explore human rights and ethical considerations, clarify research priorities and review feasibility and acceptability issues.
BackgroundThere is increasing debate about whether the scaled-up investment in HIV/AIDS programs is strengthening or weakening the fragile health systems of many developing countries. This article examines and assesses the evidence and proposes ways forward.DiscussionConsiderably increased resources have been brought into countries for HIV/AIDS programs by major Global Health Initiatives. Among the positive impacts are the increased awareness of and priority given to public health by governments. In addition, services to people living with HIV/AIDS have rapidly expanded. In many countries infrastructure and laboratories have been strengthened, and in some, primary health care services have been improved. The effect of AIDS on the health work force has been lessened by the provision of antiretroviral treatment to HIV-infected health care workers, by training, and, to an extent, by task-shifting. However, there are reports of concerns, too – among them, a temporal association between increasing AIDS funding and stagnant reproductive health funding, and accusations that scarce personnel are siphoned off from other health care services by offers of better-paying jobs in HIV/AIDS programs. Unfortunately, there is limited hard evidence of these health system impacts.Because service delivery for AIDS has not yet reached a level that could conceivably be considered "as close to Universal Access as possible," countries and development partners must maintain the momentum of investment in HIV/AIDS programs. At the same time, it should be recognized that global action for health is even more underfunded than is the response to the HIV epidemic. The real issue is therefore not whether to fund AIDS or health systems, but how to increase funding for both.SummaryThe evidence is mixed – mostly positive but some negative – as to the impact on health systems of the scaled-up responses to HIV/AIDS driven primarily by global health partnerships. Current scaled-up responses to HIV/AIDS must be maintained and strengthened. Instead of endless debate about the comparative advantages of vertical and horizontal approaches, partners should focus on the best ways for investments in response to HIV to also broadly strengthen the primary health care systems.
Purpose of review: describe why this review is timely and relevant An estimated 33 million people are living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Universal Access remains a dream for millions of people. By end 2008, 4 million people were on treatment, however, over 5 million needed treatment and in 2007 there were 2.7 million new infections. Without significant improvement in prevention, we are unlikely to meet universal access targets including the growing demand for highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART). This review examines HAART as a potential tool for preventing HIV transmission Recent findings: describe the main themes in the literature covered by the article We discuss recent scientific evidence regarding the treatment and prevention gap, importance viral load and HIV transmission, HAART and HIV transmission, when to start, HIV counseling and testing, modeling results and next steps. Summary: describe the implications of the findings for clinical practice or research HAART has considerable treatment and prevention benefits and it needs to be is considered as a key element of combination prevention. To explore HAART as an effective prevention strategy we recommend further evaluation of human rights and ethical considerations, clarification of research priorities and exploration of feasibility and acceptability issues.
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