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As the world's largest energy consumer, China's carbon emission reduction efforts play a pivotal role in achieving the world's climate change goals. Identifying the key factors driving the evolution of China's carbon emissions and understanding the contrasting situation of carbon emissions and economic growth are of great practical significance for China to effectively control the growth of carbon emissions and scientifically formulate carbon emission reduction policies. This paper analyzes the drivers of China's carbon emissions at the national and provincial levels using the LMDI model, and analyzes the relationship between China's economic growth and carbon emissions using the Tapio decoupling index, based on the measurement of China's carbon emissions from energy consumption during 2003–2020. Further, the paper combines the Tapio model with the LMDI model to analyze the key factors affecting the decoupling index of carbon emissions in China. The conclusions show that China's carbon emissions grow at an average annual rate of 4.04% from 2003 to 2020, and show a high growth trend until 2013, while the growth rate is more moderate after 2013. The R&D scale effect, urbanization effect, and population scale effect are the factors driving the growth of China's carbon emissions; while the energy structure effect, energy consumption industry structure effect, energy intensity effect, and R&D efficiency effect on carbon emissions inhibit the growth of China's carbon emissions during the study period. Weak decoupling is the most dominant decoupling state in China from 2003 to 2020, and the decoupling state varies significantly among provinces. Based on this, this paper obtains corresponding policy recommendations.

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