In this paper, we have studied the December call-options contract of SSE 50ETF options to put forward the sentiment composite index of options by means of the principal component analysis and to explore the relationship between such index and the fluctuation taking place in option prices. The empirical study has shown that the investor sentiment is correlated with option prices, and option prices prove to be more sensitive to the sentiment, whereas the impact imposed by the sentiment of option investors on option prices is more significant.
In this paper, we have first selected 28 indicators based on the selection principle of financial indicators adopted in relevant studies both at home and abroad from seven aspects, which include profitability, long-term and short-term solvency, company development capacity, operating capacity, cash flow generation capability, equity characteristics, and board characteristics. Subsequently, we have conducted the comparative analysis and comprehensive study on the logistic early warning model and BP neural network to provide reference for managers and stakeholders to select the optimal model. In addition, through our study on the dynamic early warning of BP neural network, we intend to convey the concept of constantly updating the model to both managers and stakeholders. Therefore, this paper provides ideas for the research on the model of financial crisis early warning for China’s manufacturing industry. The study is of significance for guiding the research of related issues in the manufacturing sector and can also provide reference for the early warning of other industries.
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