The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV ( Dengvaxia) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. To do so, we used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission with and without vaccination over a 10-year timeframe. Across a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure, we projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. Scenarios about the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination were chosen to be representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on sensitivity in high-transmission settings and on specificity in low-transmission settings. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that sensitivity and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high, but only in high-transmission settings. Requirements for reducing relative risk and achieving cost-effectiveness from an individual perspective were more restricted, due to the fact that those who test negative pay for screening but receive no benefit. Our results predict that cost-effectiveness could be achieved only in high-transmission areas of dengue-endemic countries with a relatively high per capita GDP, such as Panamá (13,680 USD), Brazil (8,649 USD), México (8,201 USD), or Thailand (5,807 USD). In conclusion, vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in some high-transmission settings, provided that screening is highly specific (to minimize individual harm), at least moderately sensitive (to maximize population benefit), and sufficiently inexpensive (depending on the setting).
The tetravalent dengue vaccine CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia®) is the first licensed vaccine against dengue, but recent findings indicate an elevated risk of severe disease among vaccinees without prior dengue virus (DENV) exposure. The World Health Organization currently recommends CYD-TDV only for individuals with serological confirmation of past DENV exposure. Our objective was to evaluate the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccination following serological screening. We used an agent-based model to simulate DENV transmission over a 30-year timeframe, with and without vaccination. We considered a range of values for the proportion of vaccinees with prior DENV exposure. We projected the proportion of symptomatic and hospitalized cases averted as a function of the sensitivity and specificity of serological screening. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of screening and vaccination under economic scenarios representative of Brazil and the Philippines. We found that public health impact depended primarily on the sensitivity of serological screening in high-transmission settings and on a combination of sensitivity and specificity in low-transmission settings. Reducing risk from an individual perspective required high specificity, no less than 0.8. Cost-effectiveness could be achievable from the perspective of a public payer provided that screening sensitivity for prior DENV exposure and the value of a disability-adjusted life-year were both high. Costeffectiveness was also achievable from an individual perspective, particularly with high screening specificity and low coverage. Whereas the results of this analysis offer general guidelines about CYD-TDV vaccination, decisions in specific contexts would benefit from additional, more context-specific modeling analyses. Vaccination with CYD-TDV following serological screening could have a positive impact in certain epidemiological settings, provided that screening is highly specific, at least moderately sensitive, and inexpensive.. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.The copyright holder for this preprint (which . http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/367060 doi: bioRxiv preprint first posted online Jul. 11, 2018; 2 INTRODUCTION A safe and effective dengue vaccine could have a major public health impact, as dengue causes approximately 9,000 deaths and between 50-100 million clinically apparent cases worldwide every year [1,2], with increasing geographic distribution [3]. The first licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV (Dengvaxia®), is a tetravalent, live-attenuated vaccine that was licensed in multiple countries after demonstrating efficacy against symptomatic disease in phase-III trials [4,5]. Protection has been hypothesized to derive primarily from the vaccine functioning as a "silent infection" [6]. Following their first natural infection subsequent to vaccination, this mechanism would result in vaccinees with prior dengue v...
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