Earthquake and tsunami predictions comprise huge uncertainties, thus necessitating probabilistic assessments for the design of defense facilities and urban planning. In recent years, computer development has advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments (PTHAs), where hazard curves show the exceedance probability of the maximum tsunami height. However, owing to the lack of historical and geological tsunami records, this method is generally insufficient for validating the estimated hazard curves. The eastern coast of Shikoku in the Nankai subduction zone, Japan, is suitable for validation because tsunami records from historical Nankai Trough earthquakes are available. This study evaluated PTHAs by comparing the tsunami hazard curves and exceedance frequencies of historical Nankai Trough tsunamis. We considered 3480 earthquake scenarios representing the rupture patterns of past Nankai earthquakes and calculated all tsunamis. The probability of earthquake occurrence was based on the Gutenberg–Richter law. We considered uncertainty in tsunami calculations with astronomical tide variations. The estimated tsunami hazard curves are consistent with the exceedance frequencies obtained from historical tsunamis. In addition, sensitivity tests indicate the significance of the earthquake slip heterogeneity and tsunami defense facilities in PTHAs. We also extended the PTHAs to tsunami inundation maps in high resolution and proposed an effective new method for reducing the tsunami computation load.
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This paper presents the results of analysis into the adverse effects on vehicle performance caused by the deterioration in capacity and increase in resistance of lithium-ion batteries installed in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Detailed evaluations were conducted based on simulations to determine the adverse effects on HEV performance. It was concluded that the battery resistance at which the CO2 emissions rate and the Fuel Consumption reaches 120% of the level of a new vehicle is approximately 350% of the initial battery resistance value.
This paper reports the results of investigating the permissible amount of battery deterioration. An investigation was carried out using the following two types of vehicles: a BEV (battery electric vehicle) and a HEV (hybrid electric vehicle). First, a detailed evaluation was carried out to identify how the vehicle performance was adversely affected as the lithium-ion batteries installed in the vehicles deteriorated. Next, an attempt was made to determine the permissible amount of deterioration for the vehicle-mounted lithium-ion batteries. In the case of the BEV, the driving distance declined by 20% when the capacity maintenance rate was approximately 80%. Therefore, this was specified as the permissible amount of battery deterioration for the BEV. In the case of the HEV, the fuel consumption increased by 20% when the maximum battery output maintenance rate was approximately 40%. Therefore, this was specified as the permissible amount of battery deterioration for the HEV.
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