Numerical modelling of hydrodynamic and morphodynamic response of a meso-tidal estuary inlet to the impacts of global climate variabilities. Margo (2018),
In this paper, a network-flow model was constructed to simulate the performance of interdependent critical infrastructure systems during flood hazards, when there is shortage of commodities such as electrical power and water. The model enabled us to control the distribution of commodities among different consumers whose demand cannot be fully met. Incorporating time-variance in the model allowed for evaluating the time evolution of the functional level of the infrastructure systems and quantifying their resilience. As a demonstration of the model’s capability, the network model was coupled with a raster-based hydraulic flooding model in the way of Monte Carlo simulations. It was then used to investigate the cascading effects of flood-related failures of individual infrastructure assets on the performance of the critical infrastructure systems of a coastal community under different flooding scenarios and future climate impacts. The coupled modelling framework is essential for correctly assessing the interdependences and cascading effects in the infrastructure systems in the case of flood hazards. While in the considered example, the extent of inundation becomes less severe with a changing climate, the risk to infrastructure does not recede because of the cascading effects. This behaviour could not be captured by the flood model alone.
Estuaries are one of the most important aspects of coastal systems globally. They are often hubs for human civilisation due to the socioeconomic advantages they offer. As they are highly vulnerable to natural forces, including tides, waves, surges and river discharges, it is essential to study the relationship between estuarine morphologies and these natural variables, which is crucial in order to assess estuarine evolution.
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Declaration and StatementsI, Yunzhu Yin, declare that this thesis titled, 'Morphodynamic responses of estuaries to climate change' and the work presented in it are my own, I confirmed that This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree.
Singed……………………………………………..(Yunzhu Yin)Date…………………………………………….. This thesis is the result of my own investigations, except where otherwise stated.Where correction services have been used, the extent and nature of the correction is clearly marked in a footnote(s).Other sources are acknowledged by footnotes giving explicit references. A bibliography is appended.
Global climate change drives sea level rise and changes to extreme weather events, which can affect morphodynamics of coastal and estuary systems around the world. In this paper, a 2D process-based numerical model is used to investigate the combined effects of future mean sea level and storm climate variabilities on morphological change of an estuary. Morphodynamically complex, meso-tidal Deben Estuary, located in the Suffolk at the east coast of the UK is selected as our case study site. This estuary has experienced very dynamic behaviors in history thus it might be sensitive to the future climate change. A statistical analysis of future storms around this area, derived from a global wave model, has shown a slight increase of storm wave heights and storm occurrences around the estuary in future as a result of global climate variations under medium emission scenario. By using a process-based model and by combining the forecast ‘end-of-century’ mean sea level with statistically derived storm conditions using projected storms over a time slice between 2075–2099, we determined hydrodynamic forcing for future morphodynamic modelling scenarios. It is found that the effect of increased sea level combined with future storms can significantly alter the current prevailing morphodynamic regime of the Deben Estuary thus driving it into a less stable system. It is also found that storm waves can be very significant to morphodynamic evolution of this tide-dominated estuary.
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