The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the type and number of stressful life events (SLEs) will be associated with suicidal behavior in a 3-year follow-up period in persons with major depressive disorder (MDD). Data came from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a nationally representative longitudinal survey of mental health in non-institutionalized adults in the United States. The survey consisted of two waves: Wave 1 (2001--2002) and Wave 2 (2004-2005), n = 34,653. Twelve past-year SLEs were assessed at baseline. These SLEs were categorized into the following groups based on previous research: Loss or victimization; Relationship, friendship, or interpersonal stress; Financial stress; and Legal problems. Only respondents with MDD at Wave 1 were included (n = 6,004). Several SLEs were strongly associated with suicide attempts, among which, "serious problems with neighbor, friend, or relative" (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 2.21; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.41, 3.45) and "major financial crisis, bankruptcy, or unable to pay bills" (AOR = 2.31; 95% CI: 1.45, 3.66) were the most robust predictors of suicide attempts even after adjusting for sociodemographic variables and any anxiety, substance use, or personality disorder. People with MDD who had been exposed to certain SLEs are at elevated risk for future suicide attempts, even after accounting for the demographic factors and psychiatric comorbidity.
The study aimed to determine whether some depressive, anxiety, and substance-use (DAS) disorders are mild, transient cases that remit without treatment. The first two waves of the first Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study were used (age 18-64 years at baseline; wave two N = 5618). Mental disorders were assessed using CIDI 1.1. Past-year and past-month measures of DAS disorders, health service use, and quality of life were assessed at both waves. Individuals with a past-year DAS disorder who received no prior lifetime treatment were significantly more likely than those who received treatment to: (1) remit from their index disorder(s) without subsequent treatment, (2) be free of comorbid disorders, and (3) not have attempted suicide during follow-up (remission rates: 68.5 versus 32.0 %, respectively, p < 0.001). However, these individuals had lower quality of life compared to healthy individuals. Results were similar for past-month measures. Results show that many people who meet criteria for a DAS disorder remit without treatment. However, the lowered quality of life scores in this group nonetheless underscores the negative impact on the presence of residual symptoms.
Objective: Established risk assessment tools are often inaccurate at predicting future suicide risk. We therefore investigated whether clinicians are able to predict individuals' suicide risk with greater accuracy. Method: We used the SAFE Database, which included consecutive adult (age 18 years) presentations (N ¼ 3818) over a 22-month period to the 2 tertiary care hospitals in Manitoba, Canada. Medical professionals assessed each individual and recorded his or her predicted risk for future suicide attempt (SA) on a 0-10 scale-the clinician prediction scale. The SAD PERSONS scale was completed as a comparison. SAs within 6 months, assessed using the Columbia Classification Algorithm for Suicide Assessment, were the primary outcome measure. Receiver operating characteristic curve and logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine the accuracy of both scales to predict SAs, and the scales were compared with z scores. Clinician prediction scale performance was stratified based on level of training. Results: Clinicians were able to predict future SAs with significantly greater accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] ¼ 0.73; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.77; P < 0.001) compared with the SAD PERSONS scale (z ¼ 3.79, P < 0.001). Both scales nonetheless showed positive predictive value of less than 7%. Analyses by level of training showed that junior psychiatric residents and non-psychiatric residents did not accurately predict SAs, whereas senior psychiatric residents and staff psychiatrists demonstrated greater accuracy (AUC ¼ 0.76 and 0.78, respectively). Conclusions: Clinicians are able to predict future attempts with fewer false positives than a conventional risk assessment scale, and this skill appears related to training level. Predicting future suicidal behaviour remains very challenging.
Abré géObjectif : Les instruments établis d'évaluation du risque sont souvent inexacts pour prédire le risque des futurs suicides. Nous avons donc cherché à savoir si les cliniciens sont en mesure de prédire le risque de suicide chez les personnes avec plus d'exactitude.Mé thode : Nous avons utilisé la base de données SAFE, qui comportait des présentations (N ¼ 3818) consécutives d'adultes (18 ans et þ) sur une période de 22 mois dans deux hô pitaux de soins tertiaires du Manitoba, Canada. Des professionnels de la santé ont évalué chaque personne et enregistré leur risque prédit de future tentative de suicide (TS) sur une échelle de 0 à 10-l'échelle de prédiction clinicienne. L'échelle SAD PERSONS a été administrée à titre de comparaison. Les TS sur 6 mois,
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