A weeklong workshop in Brazil in August 2004 provided the opportunity for 28 scientists from southern South America to examine daily rainfall observations to determine changes in both total and extreme rainfall. Twelve annual indices of daily rainfall were calculated over the period 1960 to 2000, examining changes to both the entire distribution as well as the extremes. Maps of trends in the 12 rainfall indices showed large regions of coherent change, with many stations showing statistically significant changes in some of the indices. The pattern of trends for the extremes was generally the same as that for total annual rainfall, with a change to wetter conditions in Ecuador and northern Peru and the region of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and northern and central Argentina. A decrease was observed in southern Peru and southern Chile, with the latter showing significant decreases in many indices. A canonical correlation analysis between each of the indices and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) revealed two large-scale patterns that have contributed to the observed trends in the rainfall indices. A coupled pattern with ENSO-like SST loadings and rainfall loadings showing similarities with the pattern of the observed trend reveals that the change to a generally more negative Southern Oscillation index (SOI) has had an important effect on regional rainfall trends. A significant decrease in many of the rainfall indices at several stations in southern Chile and Argentina can be explained by a canonical pattern reflecting a weakening of the continental trough leading to a southward shift in storm tracks. This latter signal is a change that has been seen at similar latitudes in other parts of the Southern Hemisphere. A similar analysis was carried out for eastern Brazil using gridded indices calculated from 354 stations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) database. The observed trend toward wetter conditions in the southwest and drier conditions in the northeast could again be explained by changes in ENSO.

Para citar este documentoRabelo da Rocha Repinaldo, C.., Müller, G. V., Martins Andrade, K.. (2017). Patrones atmosfericos simulados en el clima presente y futuro asociados al descenso de temperatura en el sudeste de Sudamerica. Boletín geográfico, 39, 13-34. ResumenLas características atmosféricas asociadas a eventos extremos fríos, identificados a partir del descenso de la temperatura en el invierno en tres regiones en el sudeste de Sudamérica, son analizadas con datos de reanálisis NCEP/NCAR y simulaciones de los modelos HadCM3 y GFDL-CM2.0 en la versión acoplada océano-atmósfera, para el clima presente y el escenario futuro más crítico A2 del CMIP3. Para las simulaciones del clima presente, el modelo que mejor representó las características observadas en el conjunto del reanálisis fue el GFDL-CM2.0, presentándose más coherente con relación a las posiciones de las altas pos frontales y de las isotermas de 0°C y 10°C. Para el futuro, el modelo GFDL-CM2.0 proyecta un debilitamiento de las anomalías negativas de temperatura y los eventos extremos de caída de temperatura con menos avance en dirección al Ecuador, mientras que, según el modelo HadCM3, la simulación para el futuro

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As séries de dados de precipitação pluvial total mensal, sazonal e anual de 1956 a 2015, em Jaboticabal, São Paulo, são exploradas estatisticamente e ajustadas à dis­tribuição normal, nos meses chuvosos, de setembro a maio, e à distribuição gama, nos meses secos, de junho, julho e agosto. Os dados foram obtidos junto à Estação da Companhia Paulista de Estradas de Ferro, e junto à Estação Agroclimatológica do Departamento de Ciência Exatas da UNESP, Campus de Jaboticabal, situada na re­gião nordeste do Estado de São Paulo, e cujas coordenadas geográficas são: latitude 21⁰ 14’ 14” S, longitude 48⁰ 46’ 25” W e altitude de 713 m. A função de distribuição de probabilidade fornece em qual nível de probabilidade ocorre a precipitação pluvial mínima provável em cada período analisado. Assim, espera-se que essa informação contribua na tomada de decisão, e não somente utilizar apenas o valor médio, como referência em projetos que necessitam da quantidade de precipitação pluvial.

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