Constructing a database of 37 industries, we examine whether the measured productivity in Japan is pro-cyclical and investigate the sources of this pro-cyclicality by using the production function approach employed by Hall (1990) and Basu and Fernald (1995). The aggregate Solow residual displays pro-cyclicality. A large number of industries show constant returns to scale. No significant evidence for the presence of thick-market externalities is found. Our results also hold when we consider labour hoarding, part-time employment, and the adjustment cost of investment. The results indicate that policies to revitalize the Japanese economy should concentrate on promoting productivity growth. JEL Classifications: E32, O47.

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This paper provides a fiscal crisis model that explains the low interest rates of Japanese government bonds. The key ingredient is the absence of safe assets in the sense that investors have no access to any asset that hedges fiscal risk. The interest rate is insensitive to any change in fiscal conditions and does not fully reflect the risk premium. This finding explains the low interest rates of Japanese government bonds even though the risk of fiscal default looks fairly high. The poorly-functioning bond market created in this way contributes to the low interest rate followed by a low default probability, and allows the government to sustain its large debt. This finding explains the mechanism under which the low interest rate coexists with Japan's large outstanding debt. Welfare implications are mixed. The well-functioning bond market does not always contribute to welfare enhancement because the market makes it difficult to sustain the debt. We show the implications for fiscal sustainability of some policies, such as financial market reforms and growth enhancement policies.

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This paper extends Kiyotaki and Moore's (1997) to an endogenous growth model and investigates the dynamic properties of a growing economy with binding credit constraint when land is used not only as an input of production but also as collateral. There exists a balanced growth path in an economy with binding credit constraint. In response to a once and for all productivity shock, the developed model shows the propagation mechanism among output, capital, bank credit and the land price in terms of the growth rate. The model's tractability allows us to derive interesting qualitative and quantitative findings on business cycles.j ere_434 473..489 JEL Classification Numbers: G30, O40.