BackgroundIn Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.MethodWe constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.Result & conclusionAs a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008–2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.
BackgroundSince the shift from a radiographic film-based system to that of a filmless system, the change in radiographic examination costs and costs structure have been undetermined. The activity-based costing (ABC) method measures the cost and performance of activities, resources, and cost objects. The purpose of this study is to identify the cost structure of a radiographic examination comparing a filmless system to that of a film-based system using the ABC method.MethodsWe calculated the costs of radiographic examinations for both a filmless and a film-based system, and assessed the costs or cost components by simulating radiographic examinations in a health clinic. The cost objects of the radiographic examinations included lumbar (six views), knee (three views), wrist (two views), and other. Indirect costs were allocated to cost objects using the ABC method.ResultsThe costs of a radiographic examination using a filmless system are as follows: lumbar 2,085 yen; knee 1,599 yen; wrist 1,165 yen; and other 1,641 yen. The costs for a film-based system are: lumbar 3,407 yen; knee 2,257 yen; wrist 1,602 yen; and other 2,521 yen. The primary activities were "calling patient," "explanation of scan," "take photographs," and "aftercare" for both filmless and film-based systems. The cost of these activities cost represented 36.0% of the total cost for a filmless system and 23.6% of a film-based system.ConclusionsThe costs of radiographic examinations using a filmless system and a film-based system were calculated using the ABC method. Our results provide clear evidence that the filmless system is more effective than the film-based system in providing greater value services directly to patients.
It is essential to predict the long-term supply and demand for the number of radiologic technologists as medical resources. However, it is difficult to predict the number of Japanese radiologic technologists due to complex and intertwining factors. Our purpose in this study was to predict the future number of radiologic technologists using the concept of system dynamics (SD), and to clarify the effects of relevant factors. In order to estimate the number of Japanese radiologic technologists, we constructed a flow diagram using the concept of SD. We simulated the number of radiologic technologists for the following 4 cases: maintaining the status quo, a change in the pass rate for the national examination, a change in the post-graduate employment rate, and a change in the rate of continuing education. The result for the predicted number of radiologic technologists was 50,509 in 20 years, which is 4,394 (9.5%) more than the present number, and 50,166 in 40 years, which is 4,051 (8.8%) more than the present number. For the factors influencing the number of technologists, the influence of the pass rate on the national examination and that of the rate for post-graduate employment was larger than that of the rate of continuing education in graduate school. The number of Japanese radiologic technologists will increase until 2033 and decrease until 2042, and it does not change after 2042 in case of maintaining the status quo. Implementing the concept of SD allowed us easily to clarify the factors influencing the predicted number of radiologic technologists.
Describing complex mammography examination processes is important for improving the quality of mammograms. It is often difficult for experienced radiologic technologists to explain the process because their techniques depend on their experience and intuition. In our previous study, we analyzed the process using a new bottom-up hierarchical task analysis and identified key components of the process. Leveraging the results of the previous study, the purpose of this study was to construct a mammographic examination process ontology to formally describe the relationships between the process and image evaluation criteria to improve the quality of mammograms. First, we identified and created root classes: task, plan, and clinical image evaluation (CIE). Second, we described an "is-a" relation referring to the result of the previous study and the structure of the CIE. Third, the procedural steps in the ontology were described using the new properties: "isPerformedBefore," "isPerformedAfter," and "isPerformedAfterIfNecessary." Finally, the relationships between tasks and CIEs were described using the "isAffectedBy" property to represent the influence of the process on image quality. In total, there were 219 classes in the ontology. By introducing new properties related to the process flow, a sophisticated mammography examination process could be visualized. In relationships between tasks and CIEs, it became clear that the tasks affecting the evaluation criteria related to positioning were greater in number than those for image quality. We developed a mammographic examination process ontology that makes knowledge explicit for a comprehensive mammography process. Our research will support education and help promote knowledge sharing about mammography examination expertise.
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