China’s dairy product import volume and output continue to grow rapidly, and to a certain extent, it will form a substitute for the Chinese dairy market. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of the import of dairy products on the technological progress of raw milk production in China. Using the data from 2005 to 2017, this paper uses the DEA model and the input-output model to analyze the impact of China’s dairy product imports on the technological progress of raw milk production. The model results show that: (1) there are differences in the technological content of dairy products from different importing countries; (2) The total technological content of imported dairy products hinders the improvement of the technological progress index of small, medium and large-scale production of raw milk in China, and has the most prominent negative impact on the technological progress of large-scale raw milk production in China; (3) The technological content of dairy products imports from New Zealand, Australia, Germany, the Netherlands and other countries can help improve the technological progress index of China’s moderate-scale production of raw milk, while importing countries from the United States, Canada and other countries hinder it.
In order to explore the differences in the productivity level and influencing factors of raw milk between China and the United States, this study uses the stochastic frontier production function and is based on the input and output of factors of raw milk in China and the United States from 2005 to 2020 to measure the impact of factor inputs on raw milk output and the output differences. The results of the study found that: the inefficiency term of raw milk production technology in China is higher than that in the United States; feed costs and fuel power costs have a significant positive role in promoting the growth of raw milk output in China and the United States; health and epidemic prevention costs, as well as maintenance costs, have significant impacts on the output value of raw milk in China, but they have no significant impact on the output value of raw milk in the United States. In terms of the contribution of each input factor, the contribution share of feed costs to the output value of raw milk in China is 52.53% and 25.74%, respectively, compared to the value of raw milk in the United States; The contribution share of technological progress to the output value of raw milk in China is 34.92%, and 53.77%, respectively, compared to U.S. raw milk production value. In order to narrow the productivity gap with the United States dairy industry, China’s dairy industry must pay attention to the moderate-scale breeding of dairy cows; develop an integrated production mode of planting and breeding; promote the development of grain to feed; accelerate the genetic improvement of dairy cattle populations; and learn from the pasture management experiences of foreign countries.
With the continuous opening up of China’s dairy market to foreign countries, dairy products import volume continues to grow rapidly. The structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) was used in this article to analyze the impact of dairy product imports on China’s raw milk production from 1996 to 2017. It is found that, dairy product import volume has a positive impact on China’s raw milk production, and negative impact on the liquid dairy product; and mainly negative impacts on the cost control variables in the short term. The price of corn has a stronger impact on the raw milk production compared with that of the soybean meal prices and crude oil price; the impact of Domestic raw milk demand on raw milk production fluctuates frequently in the short term, and has a positive impact on the diary export. Based on this, this article believes that adjusting the milk industry policy, optimizing the dairy products import structure and the dairy cows’ source structure, and advocating scientific feeding can effectively alleviate the impact caused by dairy products import.
Events such as COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict have significantly increased the uncertainty and volatility of global economic policies. In the context of economic globalization, the key question we investigate is whether global economic policy uncertainty will have different impacts on the manufacturing of the three major economies in China, the United States, and Europe Union. This study employs the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to examine how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) affected manufacturing from March 2008 to March 2023. The empirical results show that the effects of GEPU are time varying; its short-term effects on Chinese manufacturing are slightly greater than its medium- and long-term effects, whereas its medium- and long-term effects on manufacturing in the United States (US) and European Union (EU) are significantly greater than its short-term effects. The impact of European debt crisis, the China–US trade war and Russia–Ukraine conflict on EU manufacturing is higher than that of China and the US, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s manufacturing is much smaller than that of the US and the EU; thus, Chinese manufacturing has a greater capacity for risk mitigation than US and EU manufacturing. This study not only provides a new perspective on the study of global economic policy uncertainty; it also provides new empirical evidence on how global economic policy uncertainty affects the manufacturing sector in China, the US and Europe and provides policymakers with guidance for decision making.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.