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Virus-like particle (VLP) and live virus assays were used to investigate neutralizing immunity to Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in 239 samples from 125 fully vaccinated individuals. In uninfected, non-boosted individuals, VLP neutralization titers to Delta and Omicron were reduced 2.7-fold and 15.4-fold, respectively, compared to wild-type (WT), while boosted individuals (n=23) had 18-fold increased titers. Delta breakthrough infections (n=39) had 57-fold and 3.1-fold titers whereas Omicron breakthrough infections (n=14) had 5.8-fold and 0.32-fold titers compared to uninfected non-boosted and boosted individuals, respectively. The difference in titers (p=0.049) was related to a higher proportion of moderate to severe infections in the Delta cohort (p=0.014). Correlation of neutralizing and spike quantitative antibody titers was decreased with Delta or Omicron compared to WT. Neutralizing antibodies in Delta and Omicron breakthrough infections increase overall, but the relative magnitude of increase is greater in more clinically severe infection and against the specific infecting variant.

Associations between vaccine breakthrough cases and infection by different SARS coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants have remained largely unexplored. Here we analysed SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences and viral loads from 1,373 persons with COVID-19 from the San Francisco Bay Area from 1 February to 30 June 2021, of which 125 (9.1%) were vaccine breakthrough infections. Vaccine breakthrough infections were more commonly associated with circulating antibody-resistant variants carrying ≥1 mutation associated with decreased antibody neutralization (L452R/Q, E484K/Q and/or F490S) than infections in unvaccinated individuals (78% versus 48%, P = 1.96 × 10 −8 ). Differences in viral loads were non-significant between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated cases overall (P = 0.99) and according to lineage (P = 0.09-0.78). Symptomatic vaccine breakthrough infections had comparable viral loads (P = 0.64), whereas asymptomatic breakthrough infections had decreased viral loads (P = 0.023) compared with infections in unvaccinated individuals. In 5 cases with serial samples available for serologic analyses, vaccine breakthrough infections were found to be associated with low or undetectable neutralizing antibody levels attributable to an immunocompromised state or infection by an antibody-resistant lineage. Taken together, our results show that vaccine breakthrough infections are overrepresented by antibody-resistant SARS-CoV-2 variants, and that symptomatic breakthrough infections may be as efficient in spreading COVID-19 as unvaccinated infections, regardless of the infecting lineage.

Abstract:Accurate precipitation data at a high spatial resolution are essential for hydrological, meteorological, and ecological research at regional scales. This study presented a geostatistical downscaling-calibration procedure to derive the high spatial resolution maps of precipitation over a mountainous watershed affected by a monsoon climate. Based on the relationships between precipitation and other environmental variables, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and digital elevation model (DEM), a regression model with a residual correction method was applied to downscale the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 product from coarse resolution (25 km) to fine resolution (1 km). Two methods, geographical difference analysis (GDA) and geographical ratio analysis (GRA), were used to calibrate the downscaled TRMM precipitation data. Monthly 1 km precipitation data were obtained by disaggregating 1 km annual downscaled and calibrated precipitation data using monthly fractions derived from original TRMM data. The downscaled precipitation datasets were validated against ground observations measured by rain gauges. According to the comparison of different regression models and residual interpolation methods, a geographically-weighted regression kriging (GWRK) method was accepted to conduct the downscaling of TRMM data. The downscaled TRMM precipitation data obtained using GWRK described the spatial patterns of precipitation reasonably well at a spatial resolution of 1 km with more detailed information when compared with the original TRMM precipitation. The results of validation indicated that the GRA method provided results with higher accuracy than that of the GDA method. The final annual and monthly downscaled precipitation not only had significant improvement in spatial resolution, but also agreed well with data from the validation rain gauge stations (i.e., R 2 = 0.72, RMSE = 161.0 mm, MAE = 127.5 mm, and Bias = 0.050 for annual downscaled precipitation during 2001 to 2015; and R 2 = 0.91, RMSE = 22.2 mm, MAE = 13.5 mm, and Bias = 0.048 for monthly downscaled precipitation during 2001 to 2015). In general, the downscaling-calibration procedure is useful for complex mountainous areas with insufficient ground gauges.

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Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes will contribute to regional water resource planning and management. This study aims to separate the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes in the upper catchment of the Red River Basin in China. The Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt's test methods were applied to identify the trends and change points of the hydro-meteorological variables. The hydrological sensitivity, climate elasticity and hydrological simulation methods were adopted to estimate the contributions of climate variability and human activities to runoff changes. Results showed that annual runoff significantly decreased by 1.57 mm/year during the period of 1961-2012. A change point in annual runoff coefficient occurred in 2002. Accordingly, the annual runoff series were divided into the baseline period and the impacted period (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012). Mean annual runoff of the impacted period decreased by 29.13% compared with the baseline period. Similar estimates of the contributions of climate variability and human activities were obtained by the three different methods. Climate variability was estimated to be responsible for 69%-71% of the reduction in annual runoff, and human activities accounted for 29%-31%. Climate variability was the main driving factor for runoff decrease in the catchment.