In this article, we introduce the concept of model confidence bounds (MCB) for variable selection in the context of nested models. Similarly to the endpoints in the familiar confidence interval for parameter estimation, the MCB identifies two nested models (upper and lower confidence bound models) containing the true model at a given level of confidence. Instead of trusting a single selected model obtained from a given model selection method, the MCB proposes a group of nested models as candidates and the MCB's width and composition enable the practitioner to assess the overall model selection uncertainty. A new graphical tool—the model uncertainty curve (MUC)—is introduced to visualize the variability of model selection and to compare different model selection procedures. The MCB methodology is implemented by a fast bootstrap algorithm that is shown to yield the correct asymptotic coverage under rather general conditions. Our Monte Carlo simulations and real data examples confirm the validity and illustrate the advantages of the proposed method.

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High-order clustering aims to identify heterogeneous substructure in multiway dataset that arises commonly in neuroimaging, genomics, and social network studies. The non-convex and discontinuous nature of the problem poses significant challenges in both statistics and computation. In this paper, we propose a tensor block model and the computationally efficient methods, high-order Lloyd algorithm (HLloyd) and high-order spectral clustering (HSC), for highorder clustering in tensor block model. The convergence of the proposed procedure is established, and we show that our method achieves exact clustering under reasonable assumptions. We also give the complete characterization for the statistical-computational trade-off in high-order clustering based on three different signal-to-noise ratio regimes. Finally, we show the merits of the proposed procedures via extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets.

This paper studies the statistical and computational limits of high-order clustering with planted structures. We focus on two clustering models, constant high-order clustering (CHC) and rank-one higher-order clustering (ROHC), and study the methods and theories for testing whether a cluster exists (detection) and identifying the support of cluster (recovery).Specifically, we identify sharp boundaries of signal-to-noise ratio for which CHC and ROHC detection/recovery are statistically possible. We also develop tight computational thresholds: when the signal-to-noise ratio is below these thresholds, we prove that polynomial-time algorithms cannot solve these problems under the computational hardness conjectures of hypergraphic planted clique (HPC) detection and hypergraphic planted dense subgraph (HPDS) recovery. We also propose polynomial-time tensor algorithms that achieve reliable detection and recovery when the signal-to-noise ratio is above these thresholds. Both sparsity and tensor structures yield the computational barriers in high-order tensor clustering. The interplay between them results in significant differences between high-order tensor clustering and matrix clustering in literature in aspects of statistical and computational phase transition diagrams, algorithmic approaches, hardness conjecture, and proof techniques. To our best knowledge, we are the first to give a thorough characterization of the statistical and computational trade-off for such a double computational-barrier problem. In addition, we also provide evidence for the computational hardness conjectures of HPC detection and HPDS recovery.

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In this paper, we consider the estimation of a low Tucker rank tensor from a number of noisy linear measurements. The general problem covers many specific examples arising from applications, including tensor regression, tensor completion, and tensor PCA/SVD. We propose a Riemannian Gauss-Newton (RGN) method with fast implementations for low Tucker rank tensor estimation. Different from the generic (super)linear convergence guarantee of RGN in the literature, we prove the first quadratic convergence guarantee of RGN for low-rank tensor estimation under some mild conditions. A deterministic estimation error lower bound, which matches the upper bound, is provided that demonstrates the statistical optimality of RGN. The merit of RGN is illustrated through two machine learning applications: tensor regression and tensor SVD. Finally, we provide the simulation results to corroborate our theoretical findings.

This paper studies the Schatten-q error of low-rank matrix estimation by singular value decomposition under perturbation. Specifically, we establish a tight perturbation bound on the low-rank matrix estimation via a perturbation projection error bound. This new proof technique has provable advantages over the classic approaches. Then, we establish lower bounds to justify the tightness of the upper bound on the low-rank matrix estimation error. Based on the matrix perturbation projection error bound, we further develop a unilateral and a user-friendly sinΘ bound for singular subspace perturbation. Finally, we demonstrate the advantage of our results over the ones in the literature by simulation.