Purple soil is widely distributed in the hilly areas of the Sichuan basin, southwest China, and is highly susceptible to water erosion. The triggering of this process is related to slope, rainfall intensity and surface cover. Therefore, this study assesses the effects of different simulated rainfall intensities with different slopes on hydrological and erosional processes in un-mulched and mulched purple soils. Results show that the sediment and water losses increased with an increase of rainfall intensity and slope steepness. Generally, the slope contribution (Sc) on water and sediment losses decreased with increasing rainfall intensity and slope steepness under both un-mulched and mulched soil. In un-mulched conditions, water losses were independent of slope steepness (Sc < 50%) during the highest rainfall intensity. However, in mulched soil, the higher contributions of slope (Sc) and rainfall (Rc) were found for water and sediment losses, respectively, i.e., >50%, except during the increase in slope steepness from 15 • to 25 • under the highest rainfall intensity (120 mm·h −1 ). The effectiveness of mulch was more pronounced in reducing sediment losses (81%-100%) compared with water losses (14%-100%). The conservation effectiveness of mulch both decreased and increased with slope steepness for water and sediment losses, respectively, under higher rainfall intensities. Water infiltration and recharge coefficient (RC) decreased with an increase of slope steepness, while with an increase in rainfall intensity, the water infiltration and RC were increased and decreased, respectively, in both un-mulched and mulched soil. On the other hand, mulched soil maintained a significantly (α = 0.05) higher infiltration capacity and RC compared to that of the un-mulched soil.

Abstract. The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate in the past 4 decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into the Miyun Reservoir during . Different from previous studies on this watershed, we used a comprehensive approach to quantify the timing of changes in hydrology and associated environmental variables using the long-term historical hydrometeorology and remote-sensing-based land use records. To effectively quantify the different impacts of the climate variation and land use change on streamflow during different subperiods, an annual water balance model (AWB), the climate elasticity model (CEM), and a rainfall-runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant (p < 0.01) decrease in annual streamflow, a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p < 0.01), and an insignificant (p > 0.1) negative trend in annual precipitation during 1961-2008. We identified two streamflow breakpoints, 1983 and 1999, by the sequential Mann-Kendall test and double-mass curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to the Miyun Reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in actual evapotranspiration due to the expansion of forestland and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. The contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64-92 % during 1984-1999 to 36-58 % during 2000-2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8-36 % during the 1984-1999 to 42-64 % during 2000-2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the most recent decade (i.e., 2000s). We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the water supply capacity of the Miyun Reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management in the study basin.

Abstract. Miyun reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contributes the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in Miyun reservoir are debatable in a non-stationary climate in the past four decades. The central objective of this study was to quantify the separate and collective contributions of land use change and climate variability to the decreasing inflow into Miyun reservoir during 1961–2008. Different from previous studies, this work objectively identified breakpoints by analyzing the long-term historical hydrometeorology and land cover records. To effectively study the different impacts of the climate variation and land cover change during different sub-periods, annual water balance model (AWB), climate elasticity model (CEM), and rainfall–runoff model (RRM) were employed to conduct attribution analysis synthetically. We found a significant decrease in annual streamflow (p < 0.01), a significant positive trend in annual potential evapotranspiration (p < 0.01), and an insignificant negative trend in annual precipitation (p > 0.1) during 1961–2008. Combined with historical records, we identified two breakpoints as in 1983 and 1999 for the period 1961–2008 by the sequential Mann–Kendall Test and Double Mass Curve. Climate variability alone did not explain the decrease in inflow to Miyun reservoir. Reduction of water yield was closely related to increase in evapotranspiration rates due to the expansion of forestlands and reduction in cropland and grassland, and was likely exacerbated by increased water consumption for domestic and industrial uses in the basin. Our study found that the contribution to the observed streamflow decline from land use change fell from 64–92 % during 1984–1999 to 36–58 % during 2000–2008, whereas the contribution from climate variation climbed from 8–36 % during the 1984–1999 to 42–64 % during 2000–2008. Model uncertainty analysis further demonstrated that climate warming played a dominant role in streamflow reduction in the 2000s. We conclude that future climate change and variability will further challenge the goal of water supply of Miyun reservoir to meet water demand. A comprehensive watershed management strategy needs to consider the climate variations besides vegetation management.

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