Purpose Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common postoperative complication in elderly patients, and it greatly affects the short-term and long-term prognosis of patients. The purpose of this study was to develop a machine learning model to identify preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative high-risk factors and predict the occurrence of delirium after nonbrain surgery in elderly patients. Patients and Methods A total of 950 elderly patients were included in the study, including 132 patients with POD. We collected 30 characteristic variables, including patient demographic characteristics, basic medical history, preoperative examination characteristics, type of surgery, and intraoperative information. Three machine learning algorithms, multilayer perceptron (MLP), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), were applied to construct the model, and the k-fold cross-validation method, ROC curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and external validation were used for model evaluation. Results XGBoost showed the best performance among the three prediction models. The ROC curve results showed that XGBoost had a high area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.982 in the training set; the AUC value in the validation set was 0.924, and the prediction model was highly accurate. The k-fold cross-validation method was used for internal validation, and the XGBoost model was stable The calibration curve showed high predictive power of the XGBoost model. The DCA curve showed a higher benefit rate for patients who received interventional treatment under the XGBoost model. The AUC value for the external validation set was 0.88, indicating that the predictive model was extrapolative. Conclusion The prediction model of POD derived from the machine learning algorithm in this study has high prediction accuracy and clinical utility, which is beneficial for clinicians to diagnose and treat patients in a timely manner.
Purpose This study aims to construct a machine learning model that can recognize preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative high-risk indicators and predict the onset of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients. Patients and Methods A total of 1239 patients diagnosed with gastric cancer were enrolled in this retrospective study, among whom 107 patients developed VTE after surgery. We collected 42 characteristic variables of gastric cancer patients from the database of Wuxi People’s Hospital and Wuxi Second People’s Hospital between 2010 and 2020, including patients’ demographic characteristics, chronic medical history, laboratory test characteristics, surgical information, and patients’ postoperative conditions. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN), were employed to develop predictive models. We also utilized Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) for model interpretation and evaluated the models using k-fold cross-validation, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and external validation metrics. Results The XGBoost algorithm demonstrated superior performance compared to the other three prediction models. The area under the curve (AUC) value for XGBoost was 0.989 in the training set and 0.912 in the validation set, indicating high prediction accuracy. Furthermore, the AUC value of the external validation set was 0.85, signifying good extrapolation of the XGBoost prediction model. The results of SHAP analysis revealed that several factors, including higher body mass index (BMI), history of adjuvant radiotherapy and chemotherapy, T-stage of the tumor, lymph node metastasis, central venous catheter use, high intraoperative bleeding, and long operative time, were significantly associated with postoperative VTE. Conclusion The machine learning algorithm XGBoost derived from this study enables the development of a predictive model for postoperative VTE in patients after radical gastrectomy, thereby assisting clinicians in making informed clinical decisions.
Background Colon cancer recurrence is a common adverse outcome for patients after complete mesocolic excision (CME) and greatly affects the near-term and long-term prognosis of patients. This study aimed to develop a machine learning model that can identify high-risk factors before, during, and after surgery, and predict the occurrence of postoperative colon cancer recurrence. Methods The study included 1187 patients with colon cancer, including 110 patients who had recurrent colon cancer. The researchers collected 44 characteristic variables, including patient demographic characteristics, basic medical history, preoperative examination information, type of surgery, and intraoperative information. Four machine learning algorithms, namely extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), were used to construct the model. The researchers evaluated the model using the k-fold cross-validation method, ROC curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and external validation. Results Among the four prediction models, the XGBoost algorithm performed the best. The ROC curve results showed that the AUC value of XGBoost was 0.962 in the training set and 0.952 in the validation set, indicating high prediction accuracy. The XGBoost model was stable during internal validation using the k-fold cross-validation method. The calibration curve demonstrated high predictive ability of the XGBoost model. The DCA curve showed that patients who received interventional treatment had a higher benefit rate under the XGBoost model. The external validation set’s AUC value was 0.91, indicating good extrapolation of the XGBoost prediction model. Conclusion The XGBoost machine learning algorithm-based prediction model for colon cancer recurrence has high prediction accuracy and clinical utility.
Purpose The occurrence of myocardial injury, a grave complication post complete mesocolic excision (CME), profoundly impacts the immediate and long-term prognosis of patients. The aim of this inquiry was to conceive a machine learning model that can recognize preoperative, intraoperative and postoperative high-risk factors and predict the onset of myocardial injury following CME. Patients and Methods This study included 1198 colon cancer patients, 133 of whom experienced myocardial injury after surgery. Thirty-six distinct variables were gathered, encompassing patient demographics, medical history, preoperative examination characteristics, surgery type, and intraoperative details. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and k-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), were employed to fabricate the model, and k-fold cross-validation, ROC curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and external validation were employed to evaluate it. Results Out of the four predictive models employed, the XGBoost algorithm demonstrated the best performance. The ROC curve findings indicated that the XGBoost model exhibited remarkable predictive accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.997 in the training set and 0.956 in the validation set. For internal validation, the k-fold cross-validation method was utilized, and the XGBoost model was shown to be steady. Furthermore, the calibration curves demonstrated the XGBoost model’s high predictive capability. The DCA curve revealed higher benefit rates for patients who underwent interventional treatment under the XGBoost model. The AUC value for the external validation set was 0.74, which indicated that the XGBoost prediction model possessed good extrapolative capacity. Conclusion The myocardial injury prediction model for patients undergoing CME that was developed using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm in this study demonstrates both high predictive accuracy and clinical utility.
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