This paper considers the possibility of predicting the most frequent aviation event “Collision of an aircraft with a bird”, depending on the seasonality near the airfield. A model for determining the probability of this event is proposed, where the “time of year” is identified by the predicted air temperature near the airfield in question and the problem of determining the accumulated probability is solved. We consider the first approximation in which events are assumed to be independent (these are complex ecological and ornithological conditions and flaws of airfield’s ornithological support). Due to the first approximation of independence, the paper provides a possible way to determine the probability of the event “Collision of an aircraft with a bird”. This method (in the form of a formula) determines the probability of intersection of events caused by hazard factors. The result of the simulation is the probability of long-term forecasting of the probability of an aviation incident due to an aircraft collision.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.