One of instruments of forecasting of financial instability of regions of Russia is quantitative and qualitative estimates of interrelations between regional macroeconomic indicators. Research objective is selection of the most adequate models of establishment of interrelations between indicators of regional financial stability, their specification, assessment of parameters, quality check of models and interpretation of the received results. For carrying out the analysis financial performance of regional statistics is clusted on federal to districts and is investigated as panel structure of data. The principal component method which allowed to generate a new regressor in the form of the first main components is applied to elimination of multicollinearity between economic indicators in models.
Subject. The article addresses projections of regional budget revenues, using distributed lag models.
Objectives. The purpose is to review economic and statistical tools that are suitable for the analysis of relationship between the revenues of the regional budget system and regional macroeconomic predictors.
Methods. The study draws on statistical, constructive, economic and mathematical methods of analysis.
Results. In models with quantitative variables obtained under the Almon method, the significant predictors in the forecasting of regional budget revenues are determined mainly by the balanced financial result, the consumer price index, which characterizes inflation processes in the region, and the unemployment rate being the key indicator of the labor market. Models with quantitative variables obtained through the Koyck transformation are characterized by a wider range of predictors, the composition of which is determined by the peculiarities of economic situation in regions. The two-year forecast provides the average lag obtained during the evaluation of the models. The exception is the impact of unemployment rate, which is characterized as long-term.
Conclusions. To generate forecasts of budget parameters, the results of both the Koyck method and the Almon method should be considered, though the former is more promising.
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