Purpose This paper aims to propose the practice of urban resilience to flooding in a vulnerable Asian city, Taipei. It conducts Geographic Information System (GIS)-based simulations to assess Taipei’s vulnerability under a set of varying flooding scenarios and likelihoods. This research concludes by proposing remedies to fill the gaps these flood simulations reveal and, in doing so, promotes urban resilience in Taipei. This paper provides an example of urban resilience to flooding for other cities in Asia. Design/methodology/approach The paper undertakes a case study of Taipei to survey current practices and historic analyses as a tool to evaluate a chronology of policies implemented to make Taipei resilient to flooding. It also conducts flood simulation and scenario analysis through the technology of GIS by using ArcMap 10.2.2 software to gauge the vulnerabilities in Taipei. These GIS-based data sets are collected from Taiwan’s central and local governments. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of population, land value, residential properties, GDP and critical facilities, such as major subway stations, medical centers, public schools, major public buildings, electric power substations and gas/oil stations. Additionally, it analyzes the likelihood and cost and benefit of different flooding scenarios based on typhoon and rainfall data sets in 1975-2014 period. After a thorough analysis of vulnerability, likelihood of flooding and cost–benefit analyses, this research develops Taipei resilience policies to address the vulnerabilities. Findings The findings indicate that Taipei case study, a chronology of policies implemented to prevent flooding, explains that costly engineering structures, rebuilding and fortification against floods eventually created a false sense of security, which has encouraged more intensive residential and commercial developments in flood-prone areas, and led to a higher level of vulnerability. Additionally, flooding simulations indicate that 40 per cent of Taipei City is located in flood risk areas in an extreme weather scenario. This percentage is higher than other global cities such as London’s 15 per cent, Tokyo’s 10 per cent and New York City’s 25 per cent. Based on the 10 per cent of total flooding areas above 0.5 m, the vulnerable population is estimated at 200,000 people, or 7 per cent of the total population. The GDP impact will be more than $28bn. More than $67bn of land value is vulnerable. A least one million subway passengers will be affected each day. Further, there is little evidence that the urban poor are particularly vulnerable to floods. On the contrary, some neighborhoods with high-income households face a higher risk of floods. Very few medical centers, oil and gas stations and electrical power substations are located in flood-prone areas, but a large number of public schools, administrative buildings and major subway stations are susceptible. Additionally, the likelihood analysis of flooding in an extreme rainfall scenario concludes that the possibility will be five times that of the existing assumption with a flood in every 200 years. Thus, Taipei City’s infrequent once-in-two-century floods are likely to occur more frequently. Originality/value This paper provides a thorough analysis of vulnerability, likelihood of flooding and cost–benefit analyses in Taipei. It also develops Taipei resilience policies to address the vulnerabilities. In the future, rather than strengthening and rebuilding costly structures, Taipei should focus on land-use and environmental planning for resilience. Urban policies should include environmentally responsible development in the face of continued population and economic growth, and being resilient regarding natural disasters. Most important is the need for a strong political commitment and leadership to initiate and implement urban policies toward resilience.
<p>Taiwan has performed well economically during the past four decades. However, economic development can be profoundly hampered by natural disasters. Sustainable economic development requires environmental resilience. With 23 million people occupying only 13,974 square miles of land, Taiwan is both densely populated and highly exposed to natural disasters: 73.1% of the total population lives in vulnerable areas, and Taiwan is ranked as the country most exposed to multiple hazards (The World Bank, 2005). Storms and floods damage Taiwan frequently, with an average of six typhoons hitting Taiwan annually for the past four decades. Taiwan had the highest occurrence and highest death toll on the natural disaster density indicator (NDDI) in comparison with China, Japan, U.S.A, U.K., France, and the Netherlands from 1985 to 2014. Also, Taiwan’s economic losses during the past thirty years are estimated at $650, 000 per km². This is approximately 5 times that of the Netherlands’ $134,362 and the U.K.’s $135,292, 8 times that of the U.S.A.’s $78,186 losses, and 9 times that of France’s $70,599. Research finds that every dollar invested into disaster preparedness would save $4 to $7 dollars in post-disaster damages (Multihazard Mitigation Council, 2005; The National Academy of Sciences, 2012). Hence, promoting urban resilience policies for disaster risk reduction should become a priority in Taiwan and other Asian nations in the future. Most important is the need of a strong political commitment and leadership to initiate and implement spatial policies toward resilience.</p>
Making cities resilient to natural disasters has become a priority for many policy makers. However, few studies of global cities analyze environmental vulnerability, disaster resilience, or urban flood resilience. This article analyzes global cities' disaster resilience to flooding: New York City, London, Randstad, Tokyo, Shanghai, and Taipei. Case studies of those global cities will assist cities world-wide to prepare for the future. Results indicate that a hurricane could leave approximately 25% of New York City with severe economic losses by 2050. In London, 15% of the land is located in flood-prone areas. The Thames Barrier began to operate to protect London from flooding in 1982. However, this also encouraged housing development closer to the river, and resulted in higher exposure and vulnerability of flooding. Randstad has approximately 40% of its land areas in flood-prone areas, but Randstad is well prepared for flood risk reduction by land-use and environmental planning. In Tokyo, extensive urbanization suffers from severe damages once flooding occurs. In Shanghai, approximately 50% of its land is in flood-prone areas. Shanghai is the most vulnerable to floods of the coastal cities. Shanghai is still not well prepared in land-use and environment planning for urban flood resilience. In Taipei, flood-prone areas account for approximately 41% of its total land area in an extreme weather scenario. Among these six global cities, Asian cities should focus more on urban flood resilience since most of flooding hotspots by 2025 will be located in Asian nations with having weak policies and actions, inadequate risk information, insufficient budgets and poor implementation capacities (UNISDR 2013). This research suggests that global cities, particularly Asian cities, should promote policies of urban flood resilience, focusing on land-use and environmental planning for resilience as well as strengthening their organizations and funding to reduce disaster risk, maintain up-to-date risk and vulnerability assessment. Urban policies should include environmentally responsible development in the face of continued population and economic growth, and being resilient regarding natural disasters. Cities can also adopt a growth management policy to direct development away from flooding hotspots. Urban regeneration policy should require developers to improve storm sewers, water retention ponds, and permeable surfaces. Planning more space for rivers, more constructed wetlands, and more ecological ponds to accommodate water is important. Cities can promote an actuarially fair flood insurance program which can reflect actual flood risks. A bottom-up community resilience plan would assist achieving urban resilience.
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