A database containing sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts from 11 operational 30 centres is available to the research community and will help advance our understanding of 31 the sub-seasonal to seasonal time range.Abstract 51
52Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for 53 forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal 54
Eddy-zonal flow interactions in the annular modes are investigated in this study using a modified beta-plane multilayer quasigeostrophic (QG) channel model. This study shows the different response of high-and lowphase-speed (frequency) eddies to the zonal wind anomalies and suggests a baroclinic mechanism through which the two eddies work symbiotically maintaining the positive eddy feedback in the annular modes. Analysis also indicates that the different roles played by these two eddies in the annular modes are related to the differences in their critical line distributions. Eddies with higher phase speeds experience a low-level critical layer at the center of the jet. They drive the zonal wind anomalies associated with the annular mode but weaken the baroclinicity of the jet in the process. Lower-phase-speed eddies encounter low-level critical lines on the jet flanks. While their momentum fluxes are not as important for the jet shift, they play an important role by restoring the lower-level baroclinicity at the jet center, creating a positive feedback loop with the fast eddies that extends the persistence of the jet shift.The importance of the lower-level baroclinicity restoration by the low-phase-speed eddies in the annular modes is further demonstrated in sensitivity runs, in which surface friction on eddies is increased to selectively damp the low-phase-speed eddies. For simulations in which the low-phase-speed eddies become inactive, the leading mode of the zonal wind variability shifts from the position fluctuation to a pulsing of the jet intensity. Further studies indicate that the response of the lower-level baroclinicity to the zonal wind anomalies caused by the low-phase-speed eddies can be crucial in maintaining the annular mode-like variations.
We assess the impact of atmospheric horizontal resolution on the prediction skill and fidelity of seasonal forecasts. We show the response to an increase of atmospheric resolution from 0.8 to 0.3° horizontal grid spacing in parallel ensembles of forecasts. Changes in the prediction skill of major modes of tropical El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and extratropical North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability are small and not detected and there is no discernible impact on the weak signal‐to‐noise ratio in seasonal predictions of the winter NAO at this range of resolutions. Although studies have shown improvements in the simulation of tropical cyclones as model resolution is increased, we find little impact on seasonal prediction skill of either their numbers or intensity. Over this range of resolutions it appears that the benefit of increasing atmospheric resolution to seasonal climate predictions is minimal. However, at yet finer scales there appears to be increased eddy feedback which could strengthen weak signals in predictions of the NAO. Until prediction systems can be run operationally at these scales, it may be better to use additional computing resources for other enhancements such as increased ensemble size, for which there is a clear benefit in extratropical seasonal prediction skill.
Understanding the persistence of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is important for the intraseasonal and decadal predictability of SAM. Using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data, this study introduces a new method to quantify the relative roles of barotropic and baroclinic eddy feedbacks in the SAM persistence. Through a hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian Finite Amplitude Wave Activity diagnostic, it is found that (i) transient wave activity is important in driving the SAM, but it provides a negative feedback to the SAM persistence. (ii) Irreversible potential vorticity mixing, through barotropic processes in the upper troposphere, plays an important role in driving and sustaining the SAM variability. Particularly, following the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jet, the reduction/enhancement in effective diffusivity on the jet's poleward/equatorward flank can be understood by a stronger/weaker zonal jet acting as a robust/leaky mixing barrier. (iii) Baroclinic eddy generation and vertical wave propagation mainly act to sustain the SAM variability.
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