The Toba volcanic system in Indonesia has produced two of the largest eruptions (>2,000 km3 dense-rock equivalent [DRE] each) on Earth since the Quaternary. U–Pb crystallization ages of zircon span a period of ∼600 ky before each eruptive event, and in the run-up to each eruption, the mean and variance of the zircons’ U content decrease. To quantify the process of accumulation of eruptible magma underneath the Toba caldera, we integrated these observations with thermal and geochemical modeling. We show that caldera-forming eruptions at Toba are the result of progressive thermal maturation of the upper crustal magma reservoir, which grows and chemically homogenizes, by sustained magma influx at average volumetric rates between 0.008 and 0.01 km3/y over the past 2.2 My. Protracted thermal pulses related to magma-recharge events prime the system for eruption without necessarily requiring an increased magma-recharge rate before the two supereruptions. If the rate of magma input was maintained since the last supereruption of Toba at 75 ka, eruptible magma is currently accumulating at a minimum rate of ∼4.2 km3 per millennium, and the current estimate of the total volume of potentially eruptible magma available today is a minimum of ∼315 km3. Our approach to evaluate magma flux and the rate of eruptible magma accumulation is applicable to other volcanic systems capable of producing supereruptions and thereby could help in assessing the potential of active volcanic systems to feed supereruptions.
The formation of large‐volume silicic magmas in arc settings is fundamental for understanding trans‐crustal magmatic systems related to subduction zones. Here, we present an integrated study of the four Quaternary Toba eruptions and pre‐caldera Haranggaol Andesite on Sumatra, Indonesia. This rock suite has significantly enriched Sr‐Nd isotopes (87Sr/86Sr = 0.71220–0.71517, εNd = −8.9 to −10.6) compared with other volcanic rocks on Sunda‐Banda arc, but is similar to the post‐caldera (<74 ka) Sipisupisu basalts near the Toba Caldera. Thermodynamic modeling using Magma Chamber Simulator has revealed that the Toba silicic rocks can be produced by a two‐stage assimilation and fractional crystallization of mantle‐derived basaltic melts with compositions similar to the Sipisupisu basalts in the lower and upper crustal magma reservoirs. Binary modeling of Sr‐Nd isotopes suggests that the rocks near the Toba Caldera can be produced by mixing of 5%–10% of the subducting Nicobar Fan sediments (87Sr/86Sr = 0.73493, εNd = −14 on average) with depleted MORB mantle (DMM). Indeed, decompressional partial melting modeling of bulk mixtures of DMM with 7% subducting sediments using pMELTS indicates that the melts generated can have geochemical compositions similar to the Sipisupisu basalts. We therefore argue that hybridization of the subducting sediments with the mantle wedge could be an alternative scenario responsible for the enriched isotopic characteristics of the rocks near Toba. Prolonged fractionation of mantle‐derived enriched/depleted basaltic melts, accompanied by crustal assimilation and crystal‐melt segregation, could be common processes in generating large‐volume silicic magmas on continental arcs.
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