In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the illiquidity measure proposed by (Amihud, Y. 2002. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects.”
We study the possible asymmetric effect of monetary policy on house prices under different credit regimes. We first derive the implications of a theoretical model in which agents may be collateral-constrained. We then empirically examine the implications of the model using the threshold vector autoregression model. Two different measures reflecting the tightness of the credit market are computed to serve as the threshold variable. We find that house prices react to a monetary shock initially more strongly but the effect is less persistent in a credit boom regime than in a normal credit regime. This result is consistent with the findings of our theoretical model.
In this paper, we empirically investigate the role of stock market illiquidity shocks, stemming from Amihud's illiquidity measure, in explaining U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations from 1973 to 2018. We find that the impact of illiquidity shocks on economic activity is substantial, and historical decomposition analysis shows that cumulative illiquidity shocks were an essential contributor to the prolonged economic slump of the Great Recession. Moreover, our identified illiquidity shocks represent a distinct source of macroeconomic instability. This suggests that illiquidity shocks, measured by the stock price impacts, may contain more information than other types of shocks in recent studies, such as financial shocks and uncertainty shocks. (JEL C32, E32)
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