this article discusses the issues of statistical assessment of the dynamics and forecasting of the consumption of the main types of energy resources in the leading countries of the world. the work used methods of statistical modeling and forecasting of time series. the study is based on data from international energy statistics for 84 countries. the main attention was paid to the study of trends in the consumption of coal, natural gas and refined petroleum prod ucts. time series analysis is performed, point and interval forecast is made. as a result of the study, it was concluded that over the past 30 years, energy resources such as gas and gasoline have tended to increase consumption, and coal after a period of growth at the end of the 20th century has become less in demand in the economy. We can say that the time for green energy has not yet come, and the political and economic instability in the world increases the demand for non-renewable energy sources.
This feasibility study proposes a new approach to the classification of data array concerning sustainable development of socio-environmental-economic systems (hereinafter referred to as SEES) in the area of large river basins. The developed methodology allows carrying out the integrated assessment and forecasting the principal results of the territorial entities functioning and is based on the socio-environmental-economic conditions and the use of multidimensional comparative analysis of the development of individual territories, which, in its turn, allows considering the regional characteristics of their development. The aim of the study is to determine the conceptual and methodological foundations of integrated assessment of SEES sustainable development in the area of a large river basin. The methods of logical analysis (deduction), non-parametric statistical multidimensional estimation (PATTERN method) and econometric modeling were used in this work. The novelty of the proposed approaches consists in the development of theoretical and methodological guidelines for further improvement of the mechanism of integrated assessment of SEES formation, forecasting its development and sustainable functioning at the regional level. The obtained results allow to rank the territories according to integrated assessment, as well as to develop regional strategic programs.
Статья посвящена статистическому моделированию взаимосвязи между потреблением основных видов топливно-энергетических ресурсов и состоянием экономики. Гипотеза исследования состоит в том, что от того, какой вид энергоресурсов доминирует в стране, зависит степень развития экономики. Индикатором состояния экономики выбран валовой внутренний продукт на душу населения. Главным методом исследования стало моделирование панельных данных. Исследование базируется на статистической информации по 95 странам за 10 лет. В результате проведенного исследования сделан вывод, что на экономическую ситуацию в стране оказывает положительное влияние потребление нефти и нефтепродуктов. Остальные виды энергоресурсов (уголь, природный газ) не оказывают статистически значимого влияния.
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