The global urbanization rate is accelerating; however, data limitations have far prevented robust estimations of either global urban expansion or its effects on terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). Here, using a high resolution dataset of global land use/cover (GlobeLand30), we show that global urban areas expanded by an average of 5694 km2 per year between 2000 and 2010. The rapid urban expansion in the past decade has in turn reduced global terrestrial NPP, with a net loss of 22.4 Tg Carbon per year (Tg C year−1). Although small compared to total terrestrial NPP and fossil fuel carbon emissions worldwide, the urbanization-induced decrease in NPP offset 30% of the climate-driven increase (73.6 Tg C year−1) over the same period. Our findings highlight the urgent need for global strategies to address urban expansion, enhance natural carbon sinks, and increase agricultural productivity.
Extensive studies have focused on instantaneous and time-lag impacts of climatic factors on vegetation growth; however, the chronical and accumulative indirect impacts of antecedent climatic factors carrying over for a period of time on vegetation growth, defined as cumulative effects, are less investigated. Here we aimed to disentangle the cumulative effects of climatic factors on vegetation growth by using vegetation indexes and accumulated meteorological data. First, we investigated the explanation and fit of climate changes on vegetation variations by applying stepwise multiple linear regression with Akaike information criterion. Then, we obtained the correlation coefficients and lagged time of climatic factors on vegetation growth whereby partial correlation and time-lag effect analyses. Results showed that (i) consideration of cumulative climate effects increased the explanation and fit of climate changes on vegetation dynamics for more than 77% of vegetated surface with an average global explanation of 68.33%, which was approximately 3.35% higher than the scenario when only time-lag effects were considered; (ii) big differences exhibited in the correlation coefficients and lagged times under the scenarios with cumulative climate effects considered or not; and (iii) positive accumulated temperature (accumulated solar radiation) effects with zero (three-month) time lag dominates most mid-high latitude ecosystems, and negative accumulated temperature effects with three-month delay dominates the temperate arid and semiarid regions and tropical dry ecosystems. By comparison, accumulated precipitation had relatively complex cumulative effects on vegetation growth. We concluded that climatic factors had significant cumulative effects on vegetation growth; consideration of the cumulative effects helps us better understand the climate-vegetation interactions. Key Points: • The climatic factors had significant cumulative impacts on vegetation growth, which were varied by climatic factors and spaces • Additional consideration of the cumulative impacts increased the explanation and fit of climatic factors on plant growth • The correlation coefficients and lagged times of climatic factors on plant growth were very different if we included cumulative impacts Supporting Information: • Supporting Information S1
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