Future predictions of rainfall patterns in water-scarce regions are highly important for effective water resource management. Global circulation models (GCMs) are commonly used to make such predictions, but these models are highly complex and expensive. Furthermore, their results are associated with uncertainties and variations for different GCMs for various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Data-driven models including artificial neural networks (ANNs) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) can be used to predict long-term future changes in rainfall and temperature, which is a challenging task and has limitations including the impact of greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Therefore, in this research, results from various GCMs and data-driven models were investigated to study the changes in temperature and rainfall of the Qassim region in Saudi Arabia. Thirty years of monthly climatic data were used for trend analysis using Mann–Kendall test and simulating the changes in temperature and rainfall using three GCMs (namely, HADCM3, INCM3, and MPEH5) for the A1B, A2, and B1 emissions scenarios as well as two data-driven models (ANN: feed-forward-multilayer, perceptron and ANFIS) without the impact of any emissions scenario. The results of the GCM were downscaled for the Qassim region using the Long Ashton Research Station’s Weather Generator 5.5. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) were used to compare the performance of the models. Results showed that the ANNs could outperform the ANFIS for predicting long-term future temperature and rainfall with acceptable accuracy. All nine GCM predictions (three models with three emissions scenarios) differed significantly from one another. Overall, the future predictions showed that the temperatures of the Qassim region will increase with a specified pattern from 2011 to 2099, whereas the changes in rainfall will differ over various spans of the future.
Saudi Arabia is an arid country. It has limited water supplies. About 80-90% of water supplies come from groundwater, which is depleting day by day. It needs appropriate management. This paper has investigated groundwater modeling of Saq Aquifer in Buraydah Al Qassim to estimate the impact of its excessive use on depletion of Saq Aquifer. MODFLOW model has been used in this study. Data regarding the aquifer parameters was measured by pumping tests. Groundwater levels and discharge of wells in the area for the year 2008 and previous record of year 1999 have been collected from Municipal Authority of Buraydah. Location of wells was determined by Garmin. The model has been run for different sets of pumping rates to recommend an optimal use of groundwater resources and get prolonged life of aquifer. Simulations have been made for a long future period of 27 years (2008-2035). Model results concluded that pumping from the Saq Aquifer in Buraydah area will result into significant cones of depression if the existing excessive pumping rates prevail. A drawdown up to 28 m was encountered for model run for 27 years for existing rates of pumping. Aquifer withdrawals and drawdowns will be optimal with the conservation alternative. The management scheme has been recommended to be adopted for the future protection of groundwater resources in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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