No abstract

We present the observation and analysis of newly discovered coherent structures in the L1688 region of Ophiuchus and the B18 region of Taurus. Using data from the Green Bank Ammonia Survey, we identify regions of high density and near-constant, almost-thermal velocity dispersion. We reveal 18 coherent structures are revealed, 12 in L1688 and 6 in B18, each of which shows a sharp “transition to coherence” in velocity dispersion around its periphery. The identification of these structures provides a chance to statistically study the coherent structures in molecular clouds. The identified coherent structures have a typical radius of 0.04 pc and a typical mass of 0.4 M ☉, generally smaller than previously known coherent cores identified by Goodman et al., Caselli et al., and Pineda et al. We call these structures “droplets.” We find that, unlike previously known coherent cores, these structures are not virially bound by self-gravity and are instead predominantly confined by ambient pressure. The droplets have density profiles shallower than a critical Bonnor–Ebert sphere, and they have a velocity (V LSR) distribution consistent with the dense gas motions traced by NH3 emission. These results point to a potential formation mechanism through pressure compression and turbulent processes in the dense gas. We present a comparison with a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a star-forming region, and we speculate on the relationship of droplets with larger, gravitationally bound coherent cores, as well as on the role that droplets and other coherent structures play in the star formation process.

Accurate modeling for nonlinear and nonstationary rainfall-runoff processes is essential for performing hydrologic practices effectively. This paper proposes two hybrid machine learning models (MLMs) coupled with variational mode decomposition (VMD) to enhance the accuracy for daily rainfall-runoff modeling. These hybrid MLMs consist of VMD-based extreme learning machine (VMD-ELM) and VMD-based least squares support vector regression (VMD-LSSVR). The VMD is employed to decompose original input and target time series into sub-time series called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). The ELM and LSSVR models are selected for developing daily rainfall-runoff models utilizing the IMFs as inputs. The performances of VMD-ELM and VMD-LSSVR models are evaluated utilizing efficiency and effectiveness indices. Their performances are also compared with those of VMD-based artificial neural network (VMD-ANN), discrete wavelet transform (DWT)-based MLMs (DWT-ELM, DWT-LSSVR, and DWT-ANN) and single MLMs (ELM, LSSVR, and ANN). As a result, the VMD-based MLMs provide better accuracy compared with the single MLMs and yield slightly better performance than the DWT-based MLMs. Among all models, the VMD-ELM and VMD-LSSVR models achieve the best performance in daily rainfall-runoff modeling with respect to efficiency and effectiveness. Therefore, the VMD-ELM and VMD-LSSVR models can be an alternative tool for reliable and accurate daily rainfall-runoff modeling.

A hybrid model, combining regression kriging and neural network residual kriging (RKNNRK), is developed for determining spatial precipitation distribution. The RKNNRK model is compared with current spatial interpolation models, including simple kriging (SK), ordinary kriging (OK), universal kriging (UK), regression kriging (RK) and neural network residual kriging (NNRK). Results show that hybrid models, including RK, NNRK and RKNNRK, performed better than SK, OK and UK, based on the coefficient of efficiency (CE), coefficient of determination (r 2 ), index of agreement (d), mean squared relative error (MSRE), mean absolute error (MAE), root-mean-square error (RMSE), and mean squared error (MSE). Of the six spatial interpolation models, the RKNNRK model was the most accurate, and the NNRK model was the second best.

This study evaluates standalone and hybrid soft computing models for predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration by utilizing different water quality parameters. In the first stage, two standalone soft computing models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network and cascade correlation neural network (CCNN), were proposed for estimating the DO concentration in the St. Johns River, Florida, USA. The DO concentration and water quality parameters (e.g., chloride (Cl), nitrogen oxides (NOx), total dissolved solid (TDS), potential of hydrogen (pH), and water temperature (WT)) were used for developing the standalone models by defining six combinations of input parameters. Results were evaluated using five performance criteria metrics. Overall results revealed that the CCNN model with input combination III (CCNN-III) provided the most accurate predictions of DO concentration values (root mean square error (RMSE) = 1.261 mg/L, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) = 0.736, Willmott’s index of agreement (WI) = 0.919, R2 = 0.801, and mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.989 mg/L) for the standalone model category. In the second stage, two decomposition approaches, including discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and variational mode decomposition (VMD), were employed to improve the accuracy of DO concentration using the MLP and CCNN models with input combination III (e.g., DWT-MLP-III, DWT-CCNN-III, VMD-MLP-III, and VMD-CCNN-III). From the results, the DWT-MLP-III and VMD-MLP-III models provided better accuracy than the standalone models (e.g., MLP-III and CCNN-III). Comparison of the best hybrid soft computing models showed that the VMD-MLP-III model with 4 intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and 10 quadratic penalty factor (VMD-MLP-III (K = 4 and α = 10)) model yielded slightly better performance than the DWT-MLP-III with Daubechies-6 (D6) and Symmlet-6 (S6) (DWT-MLP-III (D6 and S6)) models. Unfortunately, the DWT-CCNN-III and VMD-CCNN-III models did not improve the performance of the CCNN-III model. It was found that the CCNN-III model cannot be used to apply the hybrid soft computing modeling for prediction of the DO concentration. Graphical comparisons (e.g., Taylor diagram and violin plot) were also utilized to examine the similarity between the observed and predicted DO concentration values. The DWT-MLP-III and VMD-MLP-III models can be an alternative tool for accurate prediction of the DO concentration values.

No abstract

Accurate water demand forecasting is essential to operate urban water supply facilities efficiently and ensure water demands for urban residents. This study proposes an extreme learning machine (ELM) coupled with variational mode decomposition (VMD) for short-term water demand forecasting in six cities (Anseong-si, Hwaseong-si, Pyeongtaek-si, Osan-si, Suwon-si, and Yongin-si), South Korea. The performance of VMD-ELM model is investigated based on performance indices and graphical analysis and compared with that of artificial neural network (ANN), ELM, and VMD-ANN models. VMD is employed for multi-scale time series decomposition and ANN and ELM models are used for sub-time series forecasting. As a result, ELM model outperforms ANN model. VMD-ANN and VMD-ELM models outperform ANN and ELM models, and the VMD-ELM model produces the best performance among all the models. The results obtained from this study reveal that the coupling of VMD and ELM can be an effective forecasting tool for short-term water demands with strong nonlinearity and non-stationarity and contribute to operating urban water supply facilities efficiently.

This study develops and applies three hybrid models, including wavelet packetartificial neural network (WPANN), wavelet packet-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (WPANFIS) and wavelet packet-support vector machine (WPSVM), combining wavelet packet decomposition (WPD) and machine learning models, ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, for forecasting daily river stage and evaluates their performance. The WPANN, WPANFIS and WPSVM models using inputs decomposed by the WPD are found to produce higher efficiency based on statistical performance criteria than the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models using original inputs. Performance evaluation for various mother wavelets indicates that the model Water Resour Manage performance is dependent on mother wavelets and the WPD using Symmlet-10 and Coiflet-18 is more effective to enhance the efficiency of the conventional machine learning models than other mother wavelets. It is found that the WPANFIS model outperforms the WPANN and WPSVM models, and the WPANFIS14-coif18 model produces the best performance among all other models in terms of model efficiency. Therefore, the WPD can significantly enhance the accuracy of the conventional machine learning models, and the conjunction of the WPD and machine learning models can be an effective tool for forecasting daily river stage accurately .