As people around the world work to stop the COVID-19 pandemic, mutated COVID-19 (Delta strain) that are more contagious are emerging in many places. How to develop effective and reasonable plans to prevent the spread of mutated COVID-19 is an important issue. In order to simulate the transmission of mutated COVID-19 (Delta strain) in China with a certain proportion of vaccination, we selected the epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province as a case study. To solve this problem, we develop a novel epidemic model with a vaccinated population. The basic properties of the model is analyzed, and the expression of the basic reproduction number is obtained. We collect data on the Delta strain epidemic in Jiangsu Province, China from July 20 to August 5, 2021. The weighted nonlinear least square estimation method is used to fit the daily asymptomatic infected people, common infected people and severe infected people. The estimated parameter values are obtained, the approximate values of the basic reproduction number are calculated . Through the global sensitivity analysis, we identify some parameters that have a greater impact on the prevalence of the disease. Finally, according to the evaluation results of parameter influence, we consider three control measures (vaccination, isolation and nucleic acid testing) to control the spread of the disease. The results of the study found that the optimal control measure is to dynamically adjust the three control measures to achieve the lowest number of infections at the lowest cost. The research in this paper can not only enrich theoretical research on the transmission of COVID-19, but also provide reliable control suggestions for countries and regions experiencing mutated COVID-19 epidemics.
In this paper, we construct an online game addiction model(including susceptible, infective, professional and quitting compartments). We also consider that the direct transfer from the susceptible individuals to the professional individuals. Some properties of the model are derived by the basic reproduction number R 0 and stability of all kinds of equilibria is obtained. Then we use Pontriagin's maximum principle to solve the optimal control strategy. Finally, Numerical simulations are also conducted in the analytic results.
Although novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) was widely spread in mainland China in early 2020, it was soon controlled. To study the impact of government interventions on the spread of disease during epidemics, a differential equation system is established to simulate the process of virus propagation in this paper. We first analyze its basic properties, basic reproduction number R 0 and existence of equilibria. Then we prove that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is Globally Asymptotically Stable when R 0 is less than 1. Through the analysis of the daily epidemic data from January 10, 2020 to March 11, 2020, combined with the implementation of the national epidemic policy, we divide the whole process into three stages: the first stage (natural state), the second stage (isolation state), the third stage (isolation, detection and treatment). By using the weighted nonlinear least square method to fit the data of three stages, the parameters are obtained, and three basic reproduction numbers are calculated, which are: R 01 = 2.6735, R 02 = 0.85077, R 03 = 0.18249. Sensitivity analysis of threshold parameters and corresponding graphical results were also performed to examine the relative importance of various model parameters to the spread and prevalence of COVID-19. Finally, we simulate the trend of three stages and verify the theory of Global Asymptotic Stability of DFE. The conclusion of this paper proves theoretically that the Chinese government's epidemic prevention measures are effective in the fight against the spread of COVID-19. This study can not only provide a reference for research methods to simulate COVID-19 transmission in other countries or regions, but also provide recommendations on COVID-19 prevention measures for them.
In this paper, we establish a mathematical model of online game addiction with two stages to research the dynamic properties of it. The existence of all equilibria is obtained, and the basic reproduction number is calculated by the method of next‐generation matrix. The global asymptotic stability of disease‐free equilibrium (DFE) is proved by comparison principle, and the global asymptotic stability of endemic equilibrium (EE) is proved by constructing an appropriate Lyapunov function. Then we use the Pontryagin's maximum principle to find the optimal solution of the model, so that the number of infected people can be minimized. In numerical simulation, firstly, we validate the global stability of DFE and EE. Secondly, we consider three kind of control measures (treatment, isolation, and education) and divide them into four cases. The models with control and without control are solved numerically by using forward and backward sweep Runge‐Kutta method. In order to achieve the best control effect, we suggest that three kind of measures should be used simultaneously according to the optimal control strategy.
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