No abstract

With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, aggressive countermeasures have been taken, including the implementation of the unprecedented lockdown of the city, which will necessarily cause huge economic losses for the city of Wuhan. In this paper, we attempt to uncover the interactions between epidemic prevention and control measures and economic-social development by estimating the health loss and meso-economic loss from a human-oriented perspective. We implemented a compartmental model for the transmission dynamics and health burden assessment to evaluate the health losses, then estimated the direct and indirect economic losses of industries using the Input-Output model. Based on these estimates, the first monthly health losses and meso-economic losses caused by the lockdown was assessed. The overall policy effect of the lockdown policy in Wuhan was also investigated. The health loss and meso-economic losses are used to evaluate the health burden and loss of residents’ mental health, the direct economic loss of several worst-hit industries, and the indirect economic loss of all industries, respectively. Our findings reveal that the health burden caused by this pandemic is estimated to be 4.4899 billion yuan (CNY), and the loss of residents’ mental health is evaluated to be 114.545 billion yuan, the direct economic losses in transport, logistics, and warehousing, postal service, food, and beverage service industries reach 21.6094 billion yuan, and the monthly indirect economic losses of all industries are 36.39661994 billion yuan caused by the lockdown. The total monthly economic losses during the lockdown reach 177.0413 billion yuan. However, the lockdown policy has been considered to reduce COVID-19 infections by >180 thousand, which saves about 20 thousand lives, as well as nearly 30 billion yuan on medical costs. Therefore, the lockdown policy in Wuhan has obvious long-term benefits on the society and the total economic losses will be at a controllable level if effective measures are taken to combat COVID-19.

Abstract:The Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final Run (IMERGF) product has now been upgraded to Version 4 (V4), which has been available since March 2017. Therefore, it is desirable to evaluate the characteristic differences between the V4 and the previous V3 products. A comprehensive performance evaluation of the errors of the successive V3 and V4 IMERGF products is performed with a comparison of the China daily Precipitation Analysis Products (CPAP) from March 2014 to February 2015. The version 6 Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) research product (which is another Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) based precipitation product) is also used as a comparison in this study. Overall, the IMERGF-V4 product does not exhibit the anticipated improvement for China compared to the IMERGF-V3 product. An analysis of the metrics of annual daily average precipitation over China for the IMERGF-V3 and IMERGF-V4 products indicates a decrease of the relative bias (RB) from 3.70% to −7.18%, a decrease of the correlation coefficient (CC) from 0.91 to 0.89, an increase of the fractional standard error (FSE) from 0.49 to 0.56, and an increase of the root-mean-square error (RMSE) from 0.63 mm to 0.72 mm. Compared to the IMERGF-V3 product, the IMERGF-V4 product exhibits a significant underestimation of precipitation in the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau with a much lower RB of −60.91% (−58.19%, −65.30%, and −63.74%) based on the annual (summer, autumn, and winter) daily average precipitation and an even worse performance during winter (−72.33% of RB). In comparison, the GSMaP product outperforms the IMERGF-V3 and IMERGF-V4 products and has the smallest RMSE (0.47 mm/day), highest CC (0.95), lowest FSE (0.37), and best performance of the RB (−2.39%) in terms of annual daily precipitation over China. However, the GSMaP product underestimates the precipitation more than the IMERGF-V3 product for the arid XJ region.

Despite the rapid economic and population growth, the risks related to the current dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) have attracted a lot of attention in Ethiopia. Therefore, a complete investigation of past and future LULC changes is essential for sustainable water resources and land-use planning and management. Since the 1980s, LULC change has been detected in the upper stream of the Awash River basin. The main purpose of this research was to investigate the current dynamics of LULC and use the combined application of the cellular automata and the Markov chain (CA–Markov) model to simulate the year 2038 LULC in the future; key informant interviews, household surveys, focus group discussions, and field observations were used to assess the consequences and drivers of LULC changes in the upstream Awash basin (USAB). This research highlighted the importance of remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) techniques for analyzing the LULC changes in the USAB. Multi-temporal cloud-free Landsat images of three sequential data sets for the periods (1984, 2000, and 2019) were employed to classify based on supervised classification and map LULC changes. Satellite imagery enhancement techniques were performed to improve and visualize the image for interpretation. ArcGIS10.4 and IDRISI software was used for LULC classification, data processing, and analyses. Based on Landsat 5 TM-GLS 1984, Landsat 7 ETM-GLS 2000, and Landsat 8 2019 OLI-TIRS, the supervised maximum likelihood image classification method was used to map the LULC dynamics. Landsat images from 1984, 2000, and 2019 were classified to simulate possible LULC in 2019 and 2038. The result reveals that the maximum area is covered by agricultural land and shrubland. It showed, to the areal extent, a substantial increase in agricultural land and urbanization and a decrease in shrubland, forest, grassland, and water. The LULC dynamics showed that those larger change rates were observed from forest and shrubland to agricultural areas. The results of the study show the radical changes in LULC during 1984–2019; the main reasons for this were agricultural expansion and urbanization. From 1984 to 2019, agriculture increased by 62%, urban area increased by 570.5%, and forest decreased by 88.7%. In the same year, the area of shrubland decreased by 68.6%, the area of water decreased by 65.5%, and the area of grassland decreased by 57.7%. In view of the greater increase in agricultural land and urbanization, as well as the decrease in shrubland, it means that the LULC of the region has changed. This research provides valuable information for water resources managers and land-use planners to make changes in the improvement of future LULC policies and development of sub-basin management strategies in the context of sustainable water resources and land-use planning and management.