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Background Discharge planning enhances the safe and timely transfer of inpatients between facilities. Predicting the discharge destination of inpatients with aspiration pneumonia is important for discharge planning. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for the discharge destination of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia. Methods Using a nationwide inpatient database, we identified aspiration pneumonia cases for patients aged ≥65 years who had been admitted to hospital from their home or from a nursing home between April 2020 and March 2021. We divided the cases into derivation and validation cohorts according to the location of the admitting hospital. We developed two prediction models by dividing the cases based on the patient’s place of residence prior to admission, one model to predict the home discharge of cases admitted from home and the other to predict the home or to a nursing home discharge of cases admitted from a nursing home. The models were internally validated with bootstrapping and internal-externally validated using a validation cohort. Nomograms that could be used easily in clinical practice were also created. Results The derivation cohort included 19,746 cases admitted from home and 14,359 cases admitted from a nursing home. Of the former, 10,760 (54.5%) cases were discharged home; from the latter, 7,071 (49.2%) were discharged to either home or a nursing home. The validation cohort included 6,262 cases admitted from home and 6,352 cases admitted from a nursing home. In the internal-external validation, the C-statistics of the final model for the cases admitted from home and the cases admitted from a nursing home were 0.71 and 0.67, respectively. Conclusions We developed and validated new prediction models for the discharge of elderly patients with aspiration pneumonia either to home or to a nursing home. Our models and nomograms could facilitate the early implementation of discharge planning.

Background Decreased swallowing function is an important risk factor for the development of aspiration pneumonia. A previous study reported that a long duration of fasting decreased swallowing function and increased mortality. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relationship between weekend hospitalization and fasting duration in older patients with aspiration pneumonia. Methods In this retrospective cohort study using hospital claims data and electronic medical record data between April 1, 2018, and March 31, 2020, 238 patients hospitalized for aspiration pneumonia were enrolled. Patients admitted from Monday to Friday were defined as the weekday admission group, and patients admitted on Saturday, Sunday, and holidays were defined as the weekend admission group. The primary endpoint was the duration of fasting. Multiple regression analysis was performed with age, gender, place of living, Functional Oral Intake Scale before admission, severity of pneumonia, and weekend admission as the independent variables. Results There were 41 patients in the weekend admission group and 103 patients in the weekday admission group. The baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. There was a median difference in the fasting duration of 23.3 h; the fasting duration in the weekend admission group was significantly longer than the weekday admission group by 20.03 h (95% confidence interval: 2.81–37.25) in the multiple regression analysis. Conclusions Weekend hospitalization was significantly associated with a longer fasting duration in patients hospitalized for aspiration pneumonia. There is a need to establish a system to enable early meal initiation for patients admitted on weekends.

Background: To reduce hospitalization costs, it is necessary to prevent avoidable hospitalization as well as avoidable readmission. This study aimed to examine the relationship between clinic physician workforce and unplanned readmission for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs). Methods: The present study was a retrospective database research using nationwide administrative claims database of acute care hospitals in Japan. We identified patients aged ≥65 years who were admitted with ACSCs from home and discharged to home between April 2014 and December 2014 (n = 127,209). The primary outcome was unplanned readmission for ACSCs within 30 or 90 days of hospital discharge. A hierarchical logistic regression model was developed with patients at the first level and regions (secondary medical service areas) at the second level.Results: The 30-day and 90-day ACSC-related readmission rates were 3.7 and 4.6%, respectively. The high full-time equivalents (FTEs) of clinic physicians per 100,000 population were significantly associated with decreased odds ratios for 30-day and 90-day ACSC-related readmissions. This association did not change even when sensitivity analyses was conducted.Conclusions: Among patients who had history of admission for ACSCs, greater clinic physician workforce prevented the incidence of readmission because of ACSCs. Regional medical plans to prevent avoidable readmissions should incorporate policy interventions that focus on the clinic physician workforce.

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