Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia (APL) is a rare condition, potentially lethal, in which risk-based therapy led to better outcomes. Due to its rarity and relatively high overall survival rate, prospective randomized trials to investigate alternative treatment schedules are challenging.Mathematical models may provide useful information in this matter. We collected clinical data from 39 patients treated for APL under the International Consortium on Acute Leukemia (ICAL) protocol and laboratory data during induction. We propose a mathematical model based on Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) that represents the dynamics of leucocytes in peripheral blood and the effect of ICAL treatment on the disease's dynamics. We observed that our cohort presents demographic characteristics and clinical outcomes similar to previous clinical trials on APL. With 41.8 months of follow-up, relapse-free survival and overall survival at two years were both 78.7%. For an adequate set of clinical data, the model solutions show good fit. Pieces of information derived from the model may assist in clinical practice and design of clinical trials, suggesting alternative chemotherapy protocols and determining the risk of relapse.
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