This investigation tests the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) in the National Football League (NFL) wagering market from 2002 to 2009. The current study examines simple betting strategies tested previously in the NFL and other sports leagues as well as whether there is a bias in games after a team's bye week. The findings suggest that favorites and especially road team favorites following a bye week won statistically more bets than their opponents. Although the majority of our analysis supported the EMH, the exceptions provide evidence of inefficiencies in the NFL betting market.
Guest speakers can reinforce relevance to course content in the classroom. However, integrating guest speakers in online, asynchronous settings may be challenging. To address this issue, sport management educators may utilize this activity with question submissions, guest speaker video interviews, and a cumulative review with consideration of the constructivist paradigm. As elements of constructivism are becoming prominent in higher education, students can construct their own learning and meaning from the insights of the facilitated guest speaker interviews.
This study investigates the efficiency of National Football League betting markets from 2002 to 2015 utilizing three rest patterns (Thursday Night Football, post-bye week, and regularly scheduled games). The logistic model indicates that inefficiencies due to the rest patterns occurred in Thursday Night Football and post-bye week games, with bettors expecting high rates of return. The forecast errors also provide evidence that point spreads did not correctly forecast future outcomes. Nevertheless, this deviation from efficiency was not sufficient to make positive returns from Thursday Night Football when teams of record were tested separately. A bias from post-bye week games remained profitable across the studied years, suggesting previously confirmed biases were not temporary. Although further analyses with a larger sample size are needed to confirm whether Thursday Night Football creates a bias consistently, this study suggests that the betting market misses important information about rest intervals and team performance.
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