As we enter the third year of the new adult heart allocation policy, we are faced with the new challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, new listings (adult and pediatric) decreased slightly, with 4000 new listings in 2020, compared with 4087 in 2019; however, the number of adult heart transplants performed continued to increase, to 3715 in 2020. The number of pediatric heart transplants declined from 509 in 2019 to 465 in 2020. One-year and six-month posttransplant mortality rates in adult recipients have increased slightly since 2015 but have not significantly changed over the past decade. Overall, posttransplant mortality rates for adult recipients were 7.4% at six months and 9.4% at one year for transplants in 2019, 14.0% at three years for transplants in 2017, and 19.1% at five years for transplants in 2015. Although shorter-term posttransplant mortality rates have slightly increased, there has been a steady downward trend in longer-term mortality. Mortality rates for pediatric recipients were 5.
The new adult heart allocation policy was approved in 2016 and implemented in October 2018. This year's Annual Data Report provides early insight into the effects of this policy. In 2019, new listings continued to increase, with 4086 new candidates. Also in 2019, 3597 heart transplants were performed, an increase of 157 (4.6%) from 2018; 509 transplants occurred in children and 3088 in adults. Short‐ and long‐term posttransplant mortality rates improved. Overall, Mortality rates for adult recipients were 6.4% at 6 months and 7.9% at 1 year for transplants in 2018, 14.4% at 3 years for transplants in 2016, and 20.1% at 5 years for transplants in 2014. Mortality rates for pediatric recipients were 6.3% at 6 months and 8.2% at 1 year for transplants in 2018, 10.3% at 3 years for transplants in 2016, and 17.8% at 5 years for transplants in 2014.
Intestine transplant can be life‐saving and can improve quality of life for patients with intestinal failure. Medical and surgical advances in treatment of intestinal failure over the past 10 to 15 years have resulted in fewer patients being added to the waiting list for intestine transplant alone or for intestine transplant in combination with liver transplant (and sometimes other organs). Consequently, fewer transplants are being performed. The numbers of listings and transplants fell to new lows in 2019. The number of programs performing transplants in at least one patient in 2019 was the lowest in the last decade, equal to 2014, at 15. Graft failure plateaued over the past decade, but early graft loss has increased in the past 2 years, notably in recipients of a combined liver and intestine allograft. Five‐year patient survival for transplants in 2012‐2014 varied little by graft type.
We examined the effects of COVID‐19 on solid organ waiting list mortality in the United States and compared effects across patient demographics (e.g., race, age, and sex) and donation service areas. Three separate piecewise exponential survival models estimated for each solid organ the overall, demographic‐specific, and donation service area‐specific differences in the hazard of waitlist mortality before and after the national emergency declaration on March 13, 2020. Kidney waiting list mortality was higher after than before the national emergency (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.37; 95% CI, 1.23–1.52). The hazard of waitlist mortality was not significantly different before and after COVID‐19 for liver (aHR, 0.94), pancreas (aHR, 1.01), lung (aHR, 1.00), and heart (aHR, 0.94). Kidney candidates had notable variability in differences across donation service areas (aHRs, New York City, 2.52; New Jersey, 1.84; and Michigan, 1.56). The only demographic group with increased waiting list mortality were Blacks versus Whites (aHR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.07–1.86) for kidney candidates. The first 10 weeks after the declaration of a national emergency had a heterogeneous effect on waitlist mortality rate, varying by geography and ethnicity. This heterogeneity will complicate comparisons of transplant program performance during COVID‐19.
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