This paper analyzes the asymmetric impact of oil price changes on the economic growth of and inflation in Indonesia by using the vector autoregression (VAR) model for the period from 1990Q1 to 2016Q4. The results show that the impact of oil price changes on the gross domestic product (GDP) is asymmetric, as a drop in oil prices decreases the GDP, whereas an increase in oil prices does not significantly affect GDP. It is crucial for Indonesia to reduce its dependency on oil, mainly as its primary source of revenue, and also consider utilizing more sources of renewable energy. At the same time, the effects of both the positive and negative changes in oil prices are found to be not statistically significant to inflation. The lack of impact of oil price changes on inflation can explain by the implementation of the fuel price subsidy in Indonesia.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6052
Recently, the paddy fields conversion rate is alarmingly high and without significant effort by the government on the existing paddy fields, national food security and food self-sufficiency in Indonesia will be at risk. Therefore, to address this issue, the government needs to identify the main drivers of paddy fields conversion in Indonesia, particularly in Java and Sumatra as national rice barn. Employing panel data of 256 in the regencies/cities level in Java and Sumatra from 2010-2017, this study investigates the determinants of paddy fields conversion in Java and Sumatra. This study identified that the factors which affected paddy fields conversion in Java are the gross regional domestic product (GRDP) in agriculture sector, the GRDP in service sector, and population density. In contrary, the GRDP in service sector doesn’t significant with the changed of paddy fields in Sumatra, however GRDP in industry sector affect the paddy fields conversion in Sumatra. Other variables which affected paddy fields conversion in Sumatra are GRDP in agricultural sector and population density. Moreover, geospatial analysis also used in this study. It reveals that the changes of paddy fields in Java is dominated by settlement, and in Sumatra suspected turned dominated into palm oil plantation due to the growth of oil palm industry.Keywords: paddy fields, land conversion, geospatialAbstrakKonversi lahan sawah di Indonesia yang selalu meningkat setiap tahun bisa mengancam ketahanan pangan nasional dan swasembada pangan. Pemerintah perlu melakukan tindakan yang nyata dan signifikan untuk menanggulangi isu tersebut. Salah satu langkah awal untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut adalah dengan mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor pendorong konversi lahan sawah yang terjadi di Indonesia, terutama di Pulau Jawa dan Sumatera sebagai lumbung padi nasional. Oleh karena itu, dengan menggunakan data panel dari 256 kabupaten/kota di Pulau Jawa dan Sumatera pada periode tahun 2010-2017, penelitian ini menganalisa faktor-faktor penentu konversi lahan sawah di Jawa dan Sumatera. Hasil penelitian ini membuktikan bahwa faktor-faktor utama yang memengaruhi konversi lahan sawah di Jawa adalah PDRB di sektor pertanian, PDRB di sektor jasa, dan kepadatan penduduk. Sebaliknya, PDRB di sektor jasa tidak berpengaruh terhadap perubahan luas lahan sawah di Sumatera, melainkan PDRB di sektor industri memberikan dampak terhadap konversi lahan sawah di Sumatera. Faktor-faktor lain yang memengaruhi konversi lahan sawah di Sumatera adalah PDRB di sektor pertanian dan kepadatan penduduk. Analisis geospasial juga digunakan di dalam penelitian ini. Berdasarkan analisis geospasial, perubahan lahan sawah di Pulau Jawa didominasi menjadi area pemukiman, sedangkan sebagian besar perubahan sawah di Sumatera berubah menjadi area tanaman yang diduga adalah kelapa sawit. Kelapa sawit berkembang diduga karena pertumbuhan industri minyak kelapa sawit di Sumatera.Kata kunci: lahan sawah, konversi lahan, geospasial
This study concentrated on the profitability assessment of the small-scale rubber production by applying the Bioeconomic Rubber Agroforestry Support System (BRASS) model of Small-scale Rubber Production at Chittagong Hill Tract, Bangladesh. Considering the present market conditions of the cost of materials, land costs, labor costs, rubber prices and discount rate, the results of the Discounted Cash-flow (DCF) analysis indicate that the investment on small-scale rubber plantations in the Chittagong Hill Tracts is not profitable in the short run but in the long run, it is profitable. Rubber production is highly profitable if the government provides an interest-free loan to the poor farmers, and the farmers can reduce their investment costs. The farmers can control the investment costs by co-management. Rubber cultivation can be made more profitable if the farmers cultivate intercropping in their garden for the first few years. Considering the present market situation, the DCF analysis for the study shows that 28 years is the optimum rotation in small-scale rubber plantations with intercropping. With this optimum rotation, the CHT area can be financially most profitable for small-scale farmers. Investment in rubber plantations gives decent economic returns to the small-scale farmers. With the high discount rate, the investment in small-scale rubber plantations is no more profitable. Therefore, the government should allow interest-free credit or very low-interest rate credit support to small-scale rubber cultivators to make the maximum investment profit. With no intercropping, small-scale rubber cultivation is no more profitable. So, in line with the government policy of restricting shifting cultivations, the government should allow small-scale farmers to cultivate intercrops along with rubber cultivations.
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