The performance criteria of rockfall protection fence and reliability index were investigated considering characteristic of rockfall energy occurred at 160 cut slopes in national highway. As a result of study on statistic of variables that decide rockfall energy using Monte-Carlo simulation, the degree of slope was normal distribution type, mass of rockfall and height of slope was lognormal distribution type. The rockfall energy follows lognormal distribution because of statistical characteristic of mass of rockfall. The reliability index of rockfall protection fence was 0.678 and the failure probability of was very high as 24.9%. Proposed performance criteria of rockfall protection fence considering the scale of domestic rockfall energy is maximum 500 kJ and the range of reliability index was from 1.028 to 1.956. the failure probability of rockfall protection fence was from 14.8 to 2.5 percent if applying the performance criteria using the reliability index.
The Weibull is widely used in reliability analysis, and several studies have attempted to improve estimation of the distribution's parameters. least squares estimation (LSE) or Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) are often used to estimate distribution parameters. However, it has been proven that Bayesian methods are more suitable for small sample sizes than LSE and MLE. In this work, the Weibull parameter estimation accuracy of LSE, MLE, and Bayesian method are compared for sample sets with 3 to 30 data points. The Bayesian method was most accurate for sample sizes under 25, and the accuracy of the Bayesian method was similar to LSE and MLE as the sample size increased. †
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