Currently, the outbreak of COVID-19 is rapidly spreading especially in Wuhan city, and threatens 14 million people in central China. In the present study we applied the Moran index, a strong statistical tool, to the spatial panel to show that COVID-19 infection is spatially dependent and mainly spread from Hubei Province in Central China to neighbouring areas. Logistic model was employed according to the trend of available data, which shows the difference between Hubei Province and outside of it. We also calculated the reproduction number R0 for the range of [2.23, 2.51] via SEIR model. The measures to reduce or prevent the virus spread should be implemented, and we expect our datadriven modeling analysis providing some insights to identify and prepare for the future virus control.
Objective: Early disease screening and diagnosis are important for improving patient survival. Thus, identifying early predictive features of disease is necessary. This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of different Machine Learning (ML) systems and reports the standard deviation of the results obtained through sampling with replacement. The research emphasises on: (a) to analyze and compare ML strategies used to predict Breast Cancer (BC) and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) and (b) to use feature importance ranking to identify early high-risk features.
Results:The Bayesian hyperparameter optimization method was more stable than the grid search and random search methods. In a BC diagnosis dataset, the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model had an accuracy of 94.74% and a sensitivity of 93.69%. The mean value of the cell nucleus in the Fine Needle Puncture (FNA) digital image of breast lump was identified as the most important predictive feature for BC. In a CVD dataset, the XGBoost model had an accuracy of 73.50% and a sensitivity of 69.54%. Systolic blood pressure was identified as the most important feature for CVD prediction.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) that has been spreading worldwide since December 2019 has sickened millions of people, shut down major cities and some countries, prompted unprecedented global travel restrictions. Real data-driven modeling is an effort to help evaluate and curb the spread of the novel virus. Lockdowns and the effectiveness of reduction in the contacts in Italy has been measured via our modified model, with the addition of auxiliary and state variables that represent contacts, contacts with infected, conversion rate, latent propagation. Results show the decrease in infected people due to stay-at-home orders and tracing quarantine intervention. The effect of quarantine and centralized medical treatment was also measured through numerical modeling analysis.
Introduction: The spatiotemporal patterns of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is detected in the United States, which shows temperature difference (TD) with cumulative hysteresis effect significantly changes the daily new confirmed cases after eliminating the interference of population density.
Methodology: The nonlinear feature of updated cases is captured through Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) with threshold points; Exposure-response curve suggests that daily confirmed cases is changed at the different stages of TD according to the threshold points of piecewise function, which traces out the rule of updated cases under different meteorological condition.
Results: Our results show that the confirmed cases decreased by 0.390% (95% CI: -0.478 ~ -0.302) for increasing each one degree of TD if TD is less than 11.5°C; It will increase by 0.302% (95% CI: 0.215 ~ 0.388) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) at the interval [11.5, 16]; Meanwhile the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases will increase by 0.321% (95% CI: 0.142 ~ 0.499) for every 1°C increase in the TD (lag0-4) when the TD (lag0-4) is over 16°C, and the most fluctuation occurred on Sunday. The results of the sensitivity analysis confirmed our model robust.
Conclusions: In US, this interval effect of TD reminds us that it is urgent to control the spread and infection of COVID-19 when TD becomes greater in autumn and the ongoing winter.
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