The cutterhead torque and thrust, reflecting the obstruction degree of the geological environment and the behavior of excavation, are the key operating parameters for the tunneling of tunnel boring machines (TBMs). In this paper, a hybrid hidden Markov model (HMM) combined with ensemble learning is proposed to predict the value intervals of the cutterhead torque and thrust based on the historical tunneling data. First, the target variables are encoded into discrete states by means of HMM. Then, ensemble learning models including AdaBoost, random forest (RF), and extreme random tree (ERT) are employed to predict the discrete states. On this basis, the performances of those models are compared under different forms of the same input parameters. Moreover, to further validate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method, two excavation datasets including Beijing and Zhengzhou from the actual project under different geological conditions are utilized for comparison. The results show that the ERT outperforms the other models and the corresponding prediction accuracies are up to 0.93 and 0.99 for the cutterhead torque and thrust, respectively. Therefore, the ERT combined with HMM can be used as a valuable prediction tool for predicting the cutterhead torque and thrust, which is of positive significance to alert the operator to judge whether the excavation is normal and assist the intelligent tunneling.
The time-varying characteristics of the gear system have an essential influence on its vibration and stability characteristics. Aiming at this characteristic and taking the generalized force caused by load torque as input and dynamic transmission error as output, a data-driven modeling method for gear time-varying system is studied using the periodic time-varying system identification theory. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by the lumped mass model of the gear system. This method has high modeling accuracy and can accurately characterize the time-varying characteristics of the gear system. Then, the virtual experimental platform of gear system dynamics is established based on the finite element theory. The method successfully extends to the virtual experimental platform, laying a foundation for analyzing the gear system’s dynamic characteristics.
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