SummaryBackgroundSurgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world.MethodsThis international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231.FindingsBetween Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p<0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p<0·001).InterpretationCountries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication.FundingDFID-MRC-Wellcome Trust Joint Global Health Trial Development Grant,...

Summary Background 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03471494 . Findings Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit.

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Background This study aimed to determine the impact of pulmonary complications on death after surgery both before and during the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. Methods This was a patient-level, comparative analysis of two, international prospective cohort studies: one before the pandemic (January–October 2019) and the second during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic (local emergence of COVID-19 up to 19 April 2020). Both included patients undergoing elective resection of an intra-abdominal cancer with curative intent across five surgical oncology disciplines. Patient selection and rates of 30-day postoperative pulmonary complications were compared. The primary outcome was 30-day postoperative mortality. Mediation analysis using a natural-effects model was used to estimate the proportion of deaths during the pandemic attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results This study included 7402 patients from 50 countries; 3031 (40.9 per cent) underwent surgery before and 4371 (59.1 per cent) during the pandemic. Overall, 4.3 per cent (187 of 4371) developed postoperative SARS-CoV-2 in the pandemic cohort. The pulmonary complication rate was similar (7.1 per cent (216 of 3031) versus 6.3 per cent (274 of 4371); P = 0.158) but the mortality rate was significantly higher (0.7 per cent (20 of 3031) versus 2.0 per cent (87 of 4371); P &lt; 0.001) among patients who had surgery during the pandemic. The adjusted odds of death were higher during than before the pandemic (odds ratio (OR) 2.72, 95 per cent c.i. 1.58 to 4.67; P &lt; 0.001). In mediation analysis, 54.8 per cent of excess postoperative deaths during the pandemic were estimated to be attributable to SARS-CoV-2 (OR 1.73, 1.40 to 2.13; P &lt; 0.001). Conclusion Although providers may have selected patients with a lower risk profile for surgery during the pandemic, this did not mitigate the likelihood of death through SARS-CoV-2 infection. Care providers must act urgently to protect surgical patients from SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Background frailty measurement may identify patients at risk of decline after hospital discharge, but many measures require specialist review and/or additional testing. Objective to compare validated frailty tools with routine electronic health record (EHR) data at hospital discharge, for associations with readmission or death. Design observational cohort study. Setting hospital ward. Subjects consented cardiology inpatients ≥70 years old within 24 hours of discharge. Methods patients underwent Fried, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), PRISMA-7 and Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) assessments. An EHR risk score was derived from the proportion of 31 possible frailty markers present. Electronic follow-up was completed for a primary outcome of 90-day readmission or death. Secondary outcomes were mortality and days alive at home (‘home time’) at 12 months. Results in total, 186 patients were included (79 ± 6 years old, 64% males). The primary outcome occurred in 55 (30%) patients. Fried (hazard ratio [HR] 1.47 per standard deviation [SD] increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.81, P &lt; 0.001), CFS (HR 1.24 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.01–1.51, P = 0.04) and EHR risk scores (HR 1.35 per SD increase, 95% CI 1.02–1.78, P = 0.04) were independently associated with the primary outcome after adjustment for age, sex and co-morbidity, but the SPPB and PRISMA-7 were not. The EHR risk score was independently associated with mortality and home time at 12 months. Conclusions frailty measurement at hospital discharge identifies patients at risk of poorer outcomes. An EHR-based risk score appeared equivalent to validated frailty tools and may be automated to screen patients at scale, but this requires further validation.

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Introduction Numerous frailty tools and definitions have been described. Amongst hospitalised patients, the validity of face-to-face instruments may be confounded by acute illness. However, patient assessment after recovery at the point of hospital discharge, or recognition of electronic health record (EHR) frailty markers, may overcome this issuep. Methods In a consented, prospective observational cohort study, we recruited patients ≥70 years old within 24 hours of expected discharge from the cardiology ward of the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh. Three established frailty instruments were tested: the Fried phenotype, Short Physical Performance Battery and nurse-administered Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). An unweighted 32-item EHR score was generated using frailty markers (e.g. falls risk, continence, cognition) recorded within mandated admission documentation. Comorbidity was assessed by count of chronic health conditions. Outcomes were a 90-day composite of unplanned readmission or death and 12-month mortality. Adjusted Cox modelling determined the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation increase in each frailty score. Results 186 patients (mean age 79 ± 6 years, 64% male) were included, of whom 55 (30%) had a 90-day composite outcome, and 21 (11%) died within 12 months. All four frailty tools were moderately correlated with age and comorbidity (Pearson’s r 0.21 to 0.43, all p &lt; 0.05). The Fried phenotype (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.18–1.81), CFS (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.51) and EHR score (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03–1.55) independently predicted 90-day readmission or death, after adjustment for age, sex and comorbidity. All frailty instruments were independent predictors of 12-month mortality, with age, sex and comorbidity losing predictive power (p &gt; 0.05) once frailty was included in modelling. Conclusions At hospital discharge, the Fried phenotype and CFS added to age and comorbidity in risk prediction for future unplanned readmission or death. EHR frailty markers appeared comparable to face-to-face assessment. An automated trigger for high-risk patients using routine EHR data merits prospective evaluation.

A 53-year-old man presented to a district general hospital with chest pain, ECG changes and a small high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I rise. There were no symptoms of heart failure. CT coronary angiography revealed moderate calcific disease and conventional angiography confirmed no flow limitation. Echocardiography showed left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH). His blood pressure remained normal throughout his admission. The tertiary centre labelled this as a ‘plaque rupture’ event but the LVH remained unexplained. Cardiac MRI displayed an unusual pattern of late gadolinium enhancement, which was not classical of amyloid. However, a raised serum free kappa light chain along with the deposition of amyloid on his bone marrow aspirate confirmed the diagnosis of primary AL amyloidosis with cardiac involvement. The patient went on to have chemotherapy and remained stable at 1-year follow-up.