The majority of the Earth's terrestrial carbon is stored in the soil. If anthropogenic warming stimulates the loss of this carbon to the atmosphere, it could drive further planetary warming. Despite evidence that warming enhances carbon fluxes to and from the soil, the net global balance between these responses remains uncertain. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of warming-induced changes in soil carbon stocks by assembling data from 49 field experiments located across North America, Europe and Asia. We find that the effects of warming are contingent on the size of the initial soil carbon stock, with considerable losses occurring in high-latitude areas. By extrapolating this empirical relationship to the global scale, we provide estimates of soil carbon sensitivity to warming that may help to constrain Earth system model projections. Our empirical relationship suggests that global soil carbon stocks in the upper soil horizons will fall by 30 ± 30 petagrams of carbon to 203 ± 161 petagrams of carbon under one degree of warming, depending on the rate at which the effects of warming are realized. Under the conservative assumption that the response of soil carbon to warming occurs within a year, a business-as-usual climate scenario would drive the loss of 55 ± 50 petagrams of carbon from the upper soil horizons by 2050. This value is around 12-17 per cent of the expected anthropogenic emissions over this period. Despite the considerable uncertainty in our estimates, the direction of the global soil carbon response is consistent across all scenarios. This provides strong empirical support for the idea that rising temperatures will stimulate the net loss of soil carbon to the atmosphere, driving a positive land carbon-climate feedback that could accelerate climate change.

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C(4) grasses, rising CO(2) should favour C(3), or cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600 p.p.m.v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC), 1.5/3.0 °C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3 years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO(2)-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected.

Rhizosphere priming is the change in decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) caused by root activity. Rhizosphere priming plays a crucial role in soil carbon (C) dynamics and their response to global climate change. Rhizosphere priming may be affected by soil nutrient availability, but rhizosphere priming itself can also affect nutrient supply to plants. These interactive effects may be of particular relevance in understanding the sustained increase in plant growth and nutrient supply in response to a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We examined how these interactions were affected by elevated CO2 in two similar semiarid grassland field studies. We found that an increase in rhizosphere priming enhanced the release of nitrogen (N) through decomposition of a larger fraction of SOM in one study, but not in the other. We postulate that rhizosphere priming may enhance N supply to plants in systems that are N limited, but that rhizosphere priming may not occur in systems that are phosphorus (P) limited. Under P limitation, rhizodeposition may be used for mobilization of P, rather than for decomposition of SOM. Therefore, with increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, rhizosphere priming may play a larger role in affecting C sequestration in N poor than in P poor soils.

Terrestrial ecosystems remove about 30% of the CO 2 emitted by human activities each year 1 , yet the persistence of this carbon sink partly depends on how plant biomass and soil carbon stocks respond to future increases in atmospheric CO 2 2,3 . While plant biomass often increases in elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ) experiments 4-6 , soil carbon has been observed to increase, remain unchanged, or even decline 7 . The mechanisms driving this variation across experiments remain poorly understood, creating uncertainty in climate projections 8,9 . Here, we synthesized data from 108 eCO 2 experiments and found that the effect of eCO 2 on soil carbon stocks is best explained by a negative relationship with plant biomass: when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by eCO 2 , soil carbon accrual declines; conversely, when biomass is weakly stimulated, soil carbon accumulates. This trade-off appears related to plant nutrient acquisition, whereby enhanced biomass requires mining the soil for nutrients, which decreases soil carbon accrual. We found an increase in soil carbon stocks with eCO 2 in grasslands (8±2%) and no increase in forests (0±2%), even though plant biomass in grassland responded less strongly (9±3%) than in forest (23±2%). Ecosystem models do not reproduce this trade-off, which implies that projections of soil carbon may need to be revised.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide enrichment (eCO 2) can enhance plant carbon uptake and growth 1,2,3,4,5 , thereby providing an important negative feedback to climate change by slowing the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration 6. While evidence gathered from young aggrading forests has generally indicated a strong CO 2 fertilization effect on biomass growth 3,4,5 , it is unclear whether mature forests respond to eCO 2 in a similar way. In mature trees and forest stands 7,8,9,10 , photosynthetic uptake has been found to increase under eCO 2 without any apparent accompanying growth response, leaving an open question about the fate of additional carbon fixed under eCO 2 4,5,7,8,9,10,11. Here, using data from the first ecosystemscale Free-Air CO 2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment in a mature forest, we constructed a comprehensive ecosystem carbon budget to track the fate of carbon as the forest responds to four years of eCO 2 exposure. We show that, although the eCO 2 treatment of ambient +150 ppm (+38%) induced a 12% (+247 g C m-2 yr-1) increase in carbon uptake through gross primary production, this additional carbon uptake did not lead to increased carbon sequestration at the ecosystem level. Instead, the majority of the extra carbon was emitted back into the atmosphere via several respiratory fluxes, with increased soil respiration alone accounting for ~50% of the total uptake surplus. Our results call into question the predominant thinking that the capacity of forests to act as carbon sinks will be generally enhanced under eCO 2 , and challenge the efficacy of climate mitigation strategies that rely on ubiquitous CO 2 fertilization as a driver of increased carbon sinks in global forests. Main text Globally, forests act as a large carbon sink, absorbing a significant portion of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 1,12 , an ecosystem service that has tremendous social and