The South Equatorial Current (SEC) in the southern Indian Ocean bifurcates at the east coast of Madagascar into the Northeast and Southeast Madagascar Currents (NEMC and SEMC, respectively). In observational and reanalysis data, interannual variations of the NEMC and SEMC transports are strongly correlated with those of the SEC transport, rather than those of the SEC bifurcation latitude (SBL). Their dynamical mechanisms are then examined based on the Time‐Dependent Island Rule for the first time. It is shown that interannual anomalies of the SBL as well as the NEMC and SEMC transports are predominantly a response to the anomalous inflow from the ocean interior that is determined by the meridional interior transport. This, in turn, is a result of westward propagating Rossby waves induced by wind stress curl anomalies mainly in 60°E–90°E. The above mechanism is contrasted with that of the seasonal variation, where the local transport driven by wind stress around the island plays a role. Furthermore, the interannual variations of the SBL and the NEMC and SEMC transports are significantly correlated with the Niño 3.4 index with 5–15 months lag. It is suggested that diabatic heating anomalies associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) along with a local process in the southeastern Indian Ocean may generate wind stress curl anomalies over the southern Indian Ocean.
Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. Here we show that climate model simulations can reproduce the Barents-Kara SIC trend for 1970–2017 when sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region is constrained by observations. The constrained warming of the Gulf Stream strengthens ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea that enhances the SIC decline. The linear trends between the SIC and SST are highly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble, suggesting that the externally forced component of the Gulf Stream SST increase explains up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend. Therefore, future warming of the Gulf Stream can be an essential pacemaker of the SIC decline.
Together from afar
The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are the large surface boundary currents in the western Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, respectively. They transport heat from the tropics to the extratropics and influence sea surface temperature, weather, and climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Kohyama
et al
. combined satellite observations with model experiments to show that these two currents are synchronized on decadal time scales by the meridional migration of the atmospheric jet stream (see the Perspective by Cessi). This coupling can help to explain climate events such as the abnormally hot summer of 2018 in the Northern Hemispheric extratropics. —HJS
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