The authors Ren Luo and Mei Li contributed equally to this work.Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a nomogram for radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) prediction. Methods: We collected data from 164 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in our previous prospective study. Biochemical hypothyroidism was defined as a serum thyroid-stimulating hormone level greater than the normal value. We collected both clinical and dose-volume factors. A univariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify RHT risk factors. Optimal predictors were selected according to the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). We then selected the Cox regression models that best balanced the prediction performance and practicability to build a nomogram for RHT prediction. Results: There were 38 (23.2%) patients who developed RHT, and the median follow-up was 24 months. The univariate Cox regression analysis indicated that gender, minimum dose, mean dose (D mean ) and V 25 -V 60 [V x (%), the percentage of thyroid volume receiving .x Gy] of the thyroid were significantly associated with RHT. The variables of gender, receiving chemotherapy or not (chemo), D mean and V 50 were selected using the LASSO analysis. A nomogram based on a three-variable (gender, chemo and V 50 ) Cox regression model was constructed, and its concordance index was 0.72. Good accordance between prediction and observation was showed by calibration curves in the probability of RHT at 18, 24 and 30 months. Conclusion: This study built a nomogram for RHT in NPC survivors by analyzing both clinical and dose-volume parameters using LASSO. Thus, the individual dose constraint could be achieved in a visual format. Advances in knowledge: This study used LASSO to more accurately address the multicollinear problem between variables. The resulting nomogram will help physicians predict RHT. INTRODUCTIONRadiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) is a common late complication after irradiation to the neck area. The majority of early RHT cases are silent because subclinical hypothyroidism (HT) can be detected only by thyroid hormone tests [elevated serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and normal serum free thyroxine (fT4) and/ or serum free triiodothyronine (fT3)]. However, other cases show overt disease [overt hypothyroidism (overt HT)] that presents with elevated TSH and decreased fT4 and/or fT3. The incidence of subclinical HT is 24-50%, and overt HT develops in 6-20% of patients with head and neck cancer who receive radiotherapy (RT).1 HT has been demonstrated to be correlated with the development of cardiovascular and pulmonary disorders in addition to diabetes mellitus, 2-7 which increases the adverse effects of RHT on patient quality of life.
Based on the results of this first Phase 2 study, we suggest omitting ENI to Level IB in Ib-negative patients with NPC with extensive nodal disease treated by IMRT.
Purpose: To ask whether the expression of immune markers and IFN signaling in tumor biopsies changes during concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). Experimental Design: Tumor biopsies and peripheral mononuclear blood cells (PMBC) before and immediately after 20 Gy/10 fractions (F) of radiation treatment (RT) from 30 patients with cervical cancer receiving CCRT were evaluated by IHC and qRT-PCR for immune markers and correlated with the short-term response. Results: Tumor immune response to radiation before and after 10F RT as reflected by CD8+ T-cell infiltration had substantial heterogeneity with increases, decreases, and no change all evident. Increases in CD8+ T cells during CCRT correlated with the presence of nuclear IRF1 in tumor cells (r = 0.68, P < 0.0001) and the patient short-term response (P < 0.01). Similarly, in a subset of patients (∼40%) PD-L1 positivity in tumor cells increased, which also correlated with nuclear IRF1 staining (r = 0.48, P < 0.01). Patients with augmented PMBC IFN signature expression after 10F had a significantly higher probability of PD-L1 induction (83% vs. 7%, P < 0.0001). Most patients exhibited abundant expression of SERPINB9 and CD47 in tumor cells, and tumor infiltration by CD68+ cells. SERPINB9 expression correlated with STAT1 signaling in tumor cells. Conclusions: CCRT leads to differential tumor immunogenicity and IFN signaling in patients with cervical cancer, suggesting radiation induction of immunity is limited to a subset of patients and may reflect the heterogeneity of intratumoral induction of IFNs. See related commentary by Mondini and Deutsch, p. 3815
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