The hydrolysis time is directly related to the flavor of the Maillard reaction, but existing proxy models cannot simulate and model the variation curves of vital volatile components. This study developed a predictive model for modelling and simulating key volatile compounds of Maillard reaction products (MRPs) derived from beef tallow residue hydrolysate. Results showed the degree of hydrolysis increased with hydrolysis time, and the most significant improvement in the roast flavor and overall acceptance was when hydrolyzing 4 h. Based on flavor dilution value and the relative odor activity value, nine key volatile components were identified, and 2-ethyl-3,5-dimethylpyrazine with roast flavor was the highest. Compared with Polynomial Curve Fitting (PCF) and Cubic Spline Interpolation (CSI), key volatile compounds of MRPs could be better modeled and simulated by the Curve Prediction Model (CPM). All results suggested that CPM could predict the changes in key volatile components produced by MRPs.
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