Most glaciers in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau are retreating, and glacier melt has been emphasized as the dominant driver for recent lake expansions on the Tibetan Plateau. By investigating detailed changes in lake extents and levels across the Tibetan Plateau from Landsat/ICESat data, we found a pattern of dramatic lake changes from 1970 to 2010 (especially after 2000) with a southwest-northeast transition from shrinking, to stable, to rapidly expanding. This pattern is in distinct contrast to the spatial characteristics of glacier retreat, suggesting limited influence of glacier melt on lake dynamics. The plateau-wide pattern of lake change is related to precipitation variation and consistent with the pattern of permafrost degradation induced by rising temperature. More than 79% of lakes we observed on the central-northern plateau (with continuous permafrost) are rapidly expanding, even without glacial contributions, while lakes fed by retreating glaciers in southern regions (with isolated permafrost) are relatively stable or shrinking. Our study shows the limited role of glacier melt and highlights the potentially important contribution of permafrost degradation in predicting future water availability in this region, where understanding these processes is of critical importance to drinking water, agriculture, and hydropower supply of densely populated areas in South and East Asia.

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in global climate and environmental change and holds the largest lake area in China, with a total surface area of 36,900 km 2 . The expansion and shrinkage of these lakes are critical to the water cycle and ecological and environmental systems across the plateau. In this paper, surface areas of major lakes within the plateau were extracted based on a topographic map from 1970, and Landsat MSS, TM and ETM' satellite images from the 1970s to 2008. Then, a multivariate correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between the changes in lake surface areas and the changes in climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine duration. Initial results suggest that the variations in lake surface areas within the plateau are closely related to the warming, humidified climate transition in recent years such as the rise of air temperature and the increase in precipitation. In particular, the rising temperature accelerates melting of glaciers and perennial snow cover and triggers permafrost degradation, and leads to the expansion of most lakes across the plateau. In addition, different distributions and types of permafrost may cause different lake variations in the southern Tibetan Plateau.

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This paper presents a preliminary study on lake-level fluctuations since the Last Glaciation in Selin Co (lake), Central Tibet, by dating four groups of beach ridges using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL). The highest/oldest beach ridge group (>100 m higher than the current lake level) is dated back to 67.9 ± 2.4 ka BP, corresponding to the early stage of the Last Glaciation (marine isotope stage (MIS) 4). This date further supports that no plateau-scale ice sheet covered the Tibetan Plateau during the Last Glaciation. The other three groups produce OSL ages of 30.4 ± 2.9 to 18.6 ± 1.7, 12.5 ± 1.6 to 9.2 ± 0.5, and 6.9 ± 0.2 ka BP respectively, most likely corresponding to cold or wet climate periods of the late stage of the Last Glaciation (MIS 2), deglaciation, and Holocene Hypsithermal. On the plateau scale, these four beach ridge groups are almost synchronous with advances or standstills of Himalayan glaciers, indicating similar climate controls across the central and southern Tibetan Plateau, and being consistent with the conclusion, obtained from nearby ice core records, that this area is affected by the South Asia monsoon. Furthermore, beach ridges are also synchronous with fluvial terraces in the northern Tibetan Plateau, implying common driving forces during their formation. Therefore, some terraces may be formed as a result of climate events rather than being of tectonic origin.

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