An outbreak of clusters of viral pneumonia due to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2) happened in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China in December 2019. Since the outbreak, several groups reported estimated R 0 of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and generated valuable prediction for the early phase of this outbreak. After implementation of strict prevention and control measures in China, new estimation is needed. An infectious disease dynamics SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Removed) model was applied to estimate the epidemic trend in Wuhan, China under two assumptions of R t . In the first assumption, R t was assumed to maintain over 1. The estimated number of infections would continue to increase throughout February without any indication of dropping with R t = 1.9, 2.6, or 3.1. The number of infections would reach 11,044, 70,258, and 227,989, respectively, by 29 February 2020. In the second assumption, R t was assumed to gradually decrease at different phases from high level of transmission (R t = 3.1, 2.6, and 1.9) to below 1 (R t = 0.9 or 0.5) owing to increasingly implemented public health intervention. Several phases were divided by the dates when various levels of prevention and control measures were taken in effect in Wuhan. The estimated number of infections would reach the peak in late February, which is 58,077-84,520 or 55,869-81,393. Whether or not the peak of the number of infections would occur in February 2020 may be an important index for evaluating the sufficiency of the current measures taken in China. Regardless of the occurrence of the peak, the currently strict measures in Wuhan should be continuously implemented and necessary strict public health measures should be applied in other locations in China with high number of COVID-19 cases, in order to reduce R t to an ideal level and control the infection.

Men who have sex with men (MSM) have recently accounted for an alarmingly increasing proportion of HIV-1 transmission in China. In order to investigate the immune status as a result of CRF01_AE infection and CXCR4 co-receptor usage in a young Shanghai-based HIV-1-infected MSM population in Shanghai, 364 HIV-1-infected MSM with average age of 22.7 years old, newly diagnosed between Jan 2009 and Jul 2013 were analyzed for CD4+T cell count, subtyping using phylogenetic analysis, and viral co-receptor tropism using Geno2pheno and webPSSM in combination. A total of 276 individuals were identified as recently infected. Subtype assignment were as follows: 176 (63.8%) CRF01_AE, 77 (27.9%) CRF07_BC, and 23 (8.3%) subtype B. Besides, 24 second-generation recombinant strains were identified. A lower CD4+T cell count at baseline survey was observed among CRF01_AE strain-infected individuals, compared to those who were infected with CRF07_BC (P<0.01). The frequency of baseline CD4+T cell count <200 was higher and the frequency of CD4 T counts >500 lower in CRF01_AE infection than CRF07_BC infection. It is worth noting that 32.4%–40.9% of CRF01_AE strain-infected individuals were predicted to carry CXCR4-tropic viruses whereas none of CRF07_BC and subtype B were found to be as CXCR4-tropic viruses (P<0.001). As could be expected CXCR4 tropism was associated with lower CD4 T counts. This study revealed that CRF01_AE strains with high frequency of CXCR4 tropism are prevailing in the young MSM population in China and could potentially cause a severe loss of CD4+T cell count and rapid disease progression. A regular surveillance of HIV-1 subtypes, CD4+T cell count and viral co-receptor usage would be greatly beneficial for effectively monitoring disease progression, improvement of antiretroviral therapy strategy and prompt intervention of transmission.

Based on our previous qualitative exploration, this research presents the second phase in our study of factors associated with utilization of a free HIV VCT clinic in Jinan City, Northern China, by female sex workers (FSWs). A total of 970 FSWs from entertainment venues were interviewed and prospectively followed to determine who ultimately sought and received VCT at the clinic, compared to those who did not. Simple and multiple logistic regressions were performed on factors drawn from the Ecological Perspective, hypothesized to be associated with utilization of testing at the VCT clinic. Despite 69% of FSWs expressing willingness to attend the VCT clinic, only 11% were actually tested. The multiple logistic regression model that provided best goodness of fit included the covariates of willingness to attend the VCT clinic (Adjusted OR 3.13, 95% CI: 1.62-6.59), low perceived HIV infection risk (Adjusted OR 0.64, 95% CI: 0.35-1.11), low fear of FSWs status disclosure in the clinic (Adjusted OR 0.55, 95% CI: 0.31-0.94) and influence of acquaintances (Adjusted OR 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29-0.89) and peers (Adjusted OR 2.45, 95% CI: 1.40-4.50). This is the first study in China to follow FSWs longitudinally to measure factors related to VCT utilization. The low utilization of VCT services by participants in our study is similar to prior reports throughout China. FSWs' access to VCT service is associated with intrapersonal, institutional, and particularly, interpersonal factors. Based on these findings, we recommend emphasis on confidentiality of services, VCT education for influential peers, and introduction of HIV rapid testing on site.

Single genetic variation may only have a modest effect on risk of gastric cardia adenocarcinoma (GCA) because this malignancy is believed to result from complex interactions among multiple genetic and environmental factors. However, it has been a challenge to characterize multiple interactions using parametric analytic approaches. This study utilized a multi-analytic strategy combining logistic regression (LR), multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) and classification and regression tree (CART) approaches to explore high-order interactions among smoking and 12 polymorphisms involved in different processes of carcinogenesis in 344 GCA patients and 324 controls. LR, MDR and CART analyses consistently suggested MMP-2 C-1306T polymorphism as the strongest individual factor for GCA risk. Intriguingly, a high-order interaction was consistently identified by MDR, LR and CART analyses. In MDR analysis, the three-factor model including MMP-2 C-1306T, FASL T-844C and FAS G-1377A yielded the highest testing accuracy of 0.632. When analysing combined effect of these three polymorphisms by LR, a significant gene dose effect was observed with the odds ratios (ORs) being increased with increasing numbers of risk genotypes (P(trend) = 4.736 × 10⁻¹²). In CART analysis, individuals carrying the combined genotypes of MMP-2 -1306CC, FASL-844TT or TC and FAS -1377AA had the highest risk for GCA (OR = 4.58; 95% confidence interval, 2.07-10.14) compared with the lowest risk carriers of the MMP-2 -1306CT or TT genotype. These results suggest that MMP-2 C-1306T polymorphism is an important risk factor for GCA and the multifactor interactions among polymorphisms in MMP-2, FASL and FAS play more important role in the development of GCA.

We aimed to explore novel small metabolites that associated with hypertension risk in a population-based nested case-control study. Among 460 individuals with optimal blood pressure (<120/80 mmHg) at baseline, 55 progressed to hypertension during 5 years of follow-up. Twenty-nine cases of incident hypertension and 29 controls, matched for age, sex, and baseline systolic blood pressure, were included in this study. Serum metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. t-test and logistic regression analysis were applied to investigate the association between metabolites and incident hypertension. Among the 241 metabolites identified in this study, baseline levels of 26 metabolites were significantly different between hypertension and control groups. After adjusting for body mass index, smoking, and drinking, 16 out of the 26 metabolites were still associated with hypertension risk including four amino acids. Amino acids were negatively associated with risk of future hypertension, with odds ratio (OR) ranging from 0.33 to 0.53. Two of these amino acids were essential amino acids including threonine and phenylalanine. Higher level of lyxose, a fermentation product of gut microbes, was associated with higher risk of hypertension. Our study identified multiple metabolites that associated with hypertension risk. These findings implied that low amino acid levels and gut microbiome might play an important role in the pathogenesis of hypertension.

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Transgender women are overrepresented in the Caribbean HIV epidemic. The study objective was to examine correlates of HIV infection and HIV testing among transgender women in Jamaica. We implemented a cross-sectional survey with transgender women in Kingston and Ocho Rios, Jamaica. We conducted multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with HIV testing and HIV infection. Among 137 transgender women [mean age 24.0; standard deviation (SD) 5.5], three-quarters (n = 103, 75.7%) had received an HIV test. Of these, one-quarter (n = 26, 25.2%) were HIV positive. In multivariable analyses, HIV testing was associated with: perceived HIV risk [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 2.42, confidence interval (CI) 1.36-4.28], depression (AOR 1.34, CI 1.01-1.77), forced sex (AOR 3.83, CI 1.42-10.35), physical abuse (AOR 4.11, CI 1.44-11.72), perceived transgender stigma (AOR 1.23, 1.06-1.42), having a healthcare provider (AOR 5.89, CI 1.46-23.77), and lower HIV-related stigma (AOR 0.96, CI 0.92-0.99), incarceration (AOR 0.28, CI 0.10-0.78), and drug use (AOR 0.74, CI 0.58-0.95). HIV infection was associated with the following: homelessness (AOR 5.94, CI 1.27-27.74), perceived HIV risk (AOR 1.67, CI 1.02-2.72), depression (AOR 1.39, CI 1.06-1.82), STI history (AOR 56.79, CI 5.12-630.33), perceived (AOR 1.26, CI 1.06-1.51) and enacted (AOR 1.16, CI 1.04-1.29) transgender stigma, forced sex (AOR 4.14, CI 1.49-11.51), physical abuse (AOR 3.75, CI 1.39-10.12), and lower self-rated health (AOR 0.55, CI 0.30-0.98) and social support (AOR 0.79, CI 0.64-0.97). Transgender women in Jamaica experience high HIV infection rates and suboptimal HIV testing. Combination HIV prevention approaches should address transgender women's social and structural vulnerabilities.

ObjectiveThis study was performed to investigate the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in pregnant women in Guizhou, China and its correlation with adverse infant and maternal outcomes during the perinatal period.MethodsIn total, 220 pregnant women who received perinatal care and delivered in the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from November 2014 to April 2015 were enrolled. Each woman’s serum vitamin D concentration was tested during early pregnancy, and its correlation with adverse infant and maternal outcomes in the perinatal period was analyzed.ResultsThe mean serum vitamin D concentration was 29.5 ± 5.8 nmol/L. More than 90% of pregnant women had vitamin D insufficiency. Additionally, 38.4% of women with vitamin D deficiency and 22.2% with vitamin D inadequacy developed adverse perinatal outcomes. The vitamin D level was negatively correlated with adverse pregnancy outcomes.ConclusionVitamin D deficiency is highly prevalent among pregnant women in Guizhou, China. The incidence of adverse perinatal outcomes was far higher in association with vitamin D deficiency than sufficiency. A negative correlation was found between the vitamin D level and the incidence of adverse perinatal outcomes in pregnant women. Therefore, targeted screening and proper supplementation are needed during early pregnancy.