Data scarcity has been a huge problem in modeling the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. Satellite data and different statistical methods have been used to improve the quality of conventional meteorological data. This study assesses the applicability of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) climate data in modeling the hydrology of the region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was set up to compare the performance of CFSR weather with that of conventional weather in simulating observed streamflow at four river gauging stations in the Lake Tana basin — the upper part of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The conventional weather simulation performed satisfactorily (e.g., NSE ≥ 0.5) for three gauging stations, while the CFSR weather simulation performed satisfactorily for two. The simulations with CFSR and conventional weather yielded minor differences in the water balance components in all but one watershed, where the CFSR weather simulation gave much higher average annual rainfall, resulting in higher water balance components. Both weather simulations gave similar annual crop yields in the four administrative zones. Overall the simulation with the conventional weather performed better than the CFSR weather. However, in data‐scarce regions such as remote parts of the Upper Blue Nile basin, CFSR weather could be a valuable option for hydrological predictions where conventional gauges are not available.

Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

Although Ethiopia has abundant land for irrigation, only a fraction of its potential land is being utilized. This study evaluates suitability of lands for irrigation using groundwater in Ethiopia using GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques in order to enhance the country's agricultural industry. Key factors that significantly affect irrigation suitability evaluated in this study include physical land features (land use, soil, and slope), climate (rainfall and evapotranspiration), and market access (proximity to roads and access to market). These factors were weighted using a pair-wise comparison matrix, then reclassified and overlaid to identify suitable areas for groundwater irrigation using a 1-km grid. Groundwater data from the British Geological Survey were used to estimate the groundwater potential, which indicates the corresponding irrigation potential for major crops. Results indicated that more than 6 million ha of land are suitable for irrigation in Ethiopia. A large portion of the irrigable land is located in the Abbay, Rift Valley, Omo Ghibe, and Awash River basins. These basins have access to shallow groundwater (i.e., depth of groundwater less than 20 m from the surface) making it easier to extract. The comparison between available groundwater and total crop water requirements indicate that groundwater alone may not be sufficient to supply all suitable land. The study estimates that only 8% of the suitable land can be irrigated with the available shallow groundwater. However, groundwater is a viable option for supplementing surface water resources for irrigation in several basins in the country

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Assessing the potential impacts of different land management practices helps to identify and implement sustainable watershed management measures. This study aims to assess a change in soil erosion rate under different land management practices in the Gilgel Abay watershed of the upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model that was adapted to the Ethiopian highlands context was employed to estimate the rate of soil erosion. The impact of land management practices on soil erosion was estimated for three scenarios, which were baseline, intensive cultivation, and extensive cultivation scenarios. At the baseline scenario, the mean annual soil erosion was estimated at ~32.8 t ha −1 yr −1 , which is equivalent to a loss of ~13.66 Mt yr −1 from the entire watershed. While the rate of soil erosion reduced to ~11.3 t ha −1 yr −1 during the implementation of intensive cultivation management practice, which reduced the total soil loss in the watershed by 65%. On the other hand, under the extensive cultivation scenario, the mean annual soil erosion rate increased to ~34.4 t ha −1 yr −1 . The findings suggest that implementing agricultural intensification management practices can significantly reduce soil erosion in the watershed.

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