This study seeks to estimate the carbon implications of recent changes in China’s economic development patterns and role in global trade in the post-financial-crisis era. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile China’s 2012 multiregional input-output (MRIO) table. Environmentally extended input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) were applied to investigate the driving forces behind changes in CO2 emissions embodied in China’s domestic and foreign trade from 2007 to 2012. Here we show that emission flow patterns have changed greatly in both domestic and foreign trade since the financial crisis. Some economically less developed regions, such as Southwest China, have shifted from being a net emission exporter to being a net emission importer. In terms of foreign trade, emissions embodied in China’s exports declined from 2007 to 2012 mainly due to changes in production structure and efficiency gains, while developing countries became the major destination of China’s export emissions.

Abstract:Most of China's CO2 emissions are related to energy consumption in its cities. Thus, cities are critical for implementing China's carbon emissions mitigation policies. In this study, we employ an input-output model to calculate consumption-based CO2 emissions for thirteen Chinese cities and find substantial differences between production-and consumption-based accounting in terms of both overall and per capita carbon emissions. Urban consumption not only leads to carbon emissions within a city's own boundaries but also induces emissions in other regions via interregional trade. In megacities such as Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin, approximately 70% of consumption-based emissions are imported from other regions. Annual per capita consumptionbased emissions in the three megacities are 14, 12 and 10 tonnes of CO2 per person, respectively. Some medium-sized cities, such as Shenyang, Dalian and Ningbo, exhibit per capita emissions that resemble those in Tianjin. From the perspective of final use, capital formation is the largest contributor to consumption-based emissions at 32-65%. All thirteen cities are categorized by their trading patterns: five are production-based cities in which production-based emissions exceed consumption-based emissions, whereas eight are consumption-based cities, with the opposite emissions pattern. Moreover, production-based cities tend to become consumption-based as they undergo socioeconomic development.

The gut and brain form the gut-brain axis through bidirectional nervous, endocrine, and immune communications. Changes in one of the organs will affect the other organs. Disorders in the composition and quantity of gut microorganisms can affect both the enteric nervous system and the central nervous system (CNS), thereby indicating the existence of a microbiota-gut-brain axis. Due to the intricate interactions between the gut and the brain, gut symbiotic microorganisms are closely associated with various CNS diseases, such as Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, and multiple sclerosis. In this paper, we will review the latest advances of studies on the correlation between gut microorganisms and CNS functions & diseases.

Abstract:China is the largest emitter of carbon emissions in the world. In this paper, we present an Integrated Model of Economy and Climate (IMEC), an optimization model based on the input-output model. The model is designed to assess the tradeoff between emission deceleration and economic growth. Given that China's projected average growth rate will exceed 5% over the next two decades, we find that China may reach its peak CO2 emissions levels by 2026. According to this scenario, China's carbon emissions will peak at 11.20 Gt in 2026 and will then decline to 10.84 Gt in 2030.Accordingly, approximately 22 Gt of CO2 will be removed from 2015 to 2035 relative to the scenario wherein China's CO2 emissions peak in 2030. While this earlier peaking of carbon emissions will result in a decline in China's GDP, several sectors, such as Machinery and Education, will benefit. In order to reach peak CO2 emissions by 2026, China needs to reduce its annual GDP growth rate to less than 4.5% by 2030 and decrease energy and carbon intensity levels by 43% and 45%, respectively, from 2015 to 2030.

The Chinese economy has been recovering slowly from the global financial crisis, but it cannot achieve the same rapid development of the pre-recession period. Instead, the country has entered a new phase of economic development-a 'new normal' . We use a structural decomposition analysis and environmental input-output analysis to estimate the determinants of China's carbon emission changes during 2005-2012. China's imports are linked to a global multi-regional inputoutput model based on the Global Trade and Analysis Project database to calculate the embodied CO 2 emissions in imports. We find that the global financial crisis has affected the drivers of China's carbon emission growth. From 2007 to 2010, the CO 2 emissions induced by China's exports dropped, whereas emissions induced by capital formation grew rapidly. In the 'new normal' , the strongest factors that offset CO 2 emissions have shifted from efficiency gains to structural upgrading. Efficiency was the strongest factor offsetting China's CO 2 emissions before 2010 but drove a 1.4% increase in emissions in the period 2010-2012. By contrast, production structure and consumption patterns caused a 2.6% and 1.3% decrease, respectively, in China's carbon emissions from 2010 to 2012. In addition, China tends to shift gradually from an investment to a consumption-driven economy. The proportion of CO 2 emissions induced by consumption had a declining trend before 2010 but grew from 28.6%-29.1% during 2010-2012.

Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models are one of the most widely used approaches to analyse the economic interdependence between different regions. We utilised the latest socioeconomic datasets to compile a Chinese MRIO table for 2012 based on the modified gravity model. The MRIO table provides inter-regional and inter-sectoral economic flows among 30 economic sectors in China’s 30 regions for 2012. This is the first MRIO table to reflect China’s economic development pattern after the 2008 global financial crisis. The Chinese MRIO table can be used to analyse the production and consumption structure of provincial economies and the inter-regional trade pattern within China, as well as function as a tool for both national and regional economic planning. The Chinese MRIO table also provides a foundation for extensive research on environmental impacts by linking industrial and regional output to energy use, carbon emissions, environmental pollutants, and satellite accounts.

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Energy consumption is one of main reasons for global warming and highly correlated with economic development. As the largest energy consumer worldwide, China has entered a new economic development model-the "new normal." This study aims to explore the pattern shift in China's energy consumption growth in this new development phase. We use structural decomposition analysis and environmentally extended input-output analysis to decompose China's energy consumption changes during 2005-2012 into five factors: population, efficiency, production structure, consumption patterns, and consumption volume. During the period of the global financial crisis, the energy consumption generated by China's exports dropped, while the energy consumption generated by capital formation grew rapidly. Over three quarters of China's energy consumption growth was caused by capital formation during 2007-2010. This growth is mainly because of China's economic stimulus measures in response to the global recession, with a focus on infrastructure construction. In the new normal, the strongest factors offsetting China's energy consumption have been shifting from efficiency gains to structural changes. Efficiency gains were the strongest factor offsetting China's energy consumption in traditional development model and offset 42% of energy consumption between 2005 and 2010 by keeping other driving forces constant. Since 2010, however, their effects offsetting energy have become weak. The production structure and consumption patterns both drove China's energy consumption growth in the traditional development model and drove energy consumption growth by 31% and 12% between 2005 and 2010, respectively. Since 2010, however, both factors have started to offset China's energy consumption.