With period fertility having risen in many low‐fertility countries, an important emerging question is whether cohort fertility trends are also reversing. We produce new estimates of cohort fertility for 37 developed countries using a new, simple method that avoids the underestimation typical of previous approaches. Consistent with the idea that timing changes were largely responsible for the last decades' low period fertility, we find that family size has remained considerably higher than the period rates of 1.5 in many “low‐fertility” countries, averaging about 1.8 children. Our forecasts suggest that the long‐term decline in cohort fertility is flattening or reversing in many world regions previously characterized by low fertility. We document the marked increase of cohort fertility in the English‐speaking world and in Scandinavia; signs of an upward reversal in many low‐fertility countries, including Japan and Germany; and continued declines in countries such as Taiwan and Portugal. We include in our forecasts estimates of statistical uncertainty and the possible effects of the recent economic recession.

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Purpose-Although sexual risk behavior has negative consequences in adolescence and early adulthood, little is known about pathways of sexual risk across development and their correlates. Study goals were to examine trajectories of number of sexual partners across adolescence and into early adulthood, and to investigate hypothesized individual and family-level predictors.Methods-A subset of 8,707 White, Black, and Mexican American participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health reported on their motivations to have sex, family warmth, and perceptions of maternal attitudes about sex at Wave 1 and on their sexual relationships at each year of age across the three waves of the study.Results-Multilevel growth curves of number of sexual partners between ages 11 and 27 showed increases in sexual risk across adolescence and deceleration in early adulthood, but differed somewhat as a function of demographic characteristics. As expected, adolescent motivations to have sex and perceptions of permissive maternal attitudes about sex predicted more sexual partners in adolescence, whereas family warmth predicted fewer sexual partners across gender and racial/ethnic groups. Predictors did not differentiate youth as strongly in early adulthood. Interactions between predictors supported a cumulative risk framework, such that perceived permissive maternal attitudes or low family warmth combined with high adolescent motivations to have sex predicted the highest number of sexual partners in adolescence.Conclusions-This study advances our understanding of change in sexual behavior across development and the individual and contextual correlates of such change. Findings document the Correspondence should be addressed to Marni L. Kan, RTI International, P.O. Box 12194, Research Triangle Park, NC, 27709-2194. Telephone: 919-485-2756. Electronic Mail: mkan@rti.org. Notes. Although youth in the study were ages 11 to 27 years, figures depict youth between ages 13 and 23, which represent over 85% of the analytic sample. The figures depict trajectories for female (F) and male (M) youth who were 13, 15, and 17 years old at wave 1, controlling for family structure, maternal education, age at first sexual intercourse, and pubertal timing, when these covariates were significant. The model for Mexican American youth also included generation as a covariate. Some values were negative as a result of formula calculations and were truncated at 0.Publisher's Disclaimer: This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. , the number of sexual partners an individual has each year should increase during adolesce...

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The contemporary retreat from marriage in the United States has had a differential impact across socioeconomic and racial groups. Here, 1990 marriage rates and propensities for Virginia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are analyzed regarding (a) the likelihood that persons in different groups ever marry and (b) patterns of partner choice with respect to race and educational level. Marriage remains strong in most race‐education groups but is substantially lower among Blacks and among those with less than 12 years of education. Patterns of partner choice have shifted to show greater symmetry between the educational levels of brides and grooms. Changes have been modest with regard to the level and pattern of interracial (Black‐White) marriage. Marriage is increasingly a union of equals, but a union chosen more by Whites than by Blacks and more by the well educated than by the poorly educated.