Background Because there is no reliable risk stratification tool for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients at admission, we aimed to construct an effective model for early identification of cases at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Methods In this retrospective multicenter study, 372 hospitalized patients with nonsevere COVID-19 were followed for > 15 days after admission. Patients who deteriorated to severe or critical COVID-19 and those who maintained a nonsevere state were assigned to the severe and nonsevere groups, respectively. Based on baseline data of the 2 groups, we constructed a risk prediction nomogram for severe COVID-19 and evaluated its performance. Results The training cohort consisted of 189 patients, and the 2 independent validation cohorts consisted of 165 and 18 patients. Among all cases, 72 (19.4%) patients developed severe COVID-19. Older age; higher serum lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, and direct bilirubin; and lower albumin were associated with severe COVID-19. We generated the nomogram for early identifying severe COVID-19 in the training cohort (area under the curve [AUC], 0.912 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .846–.978]; sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 87.6%) and the validation cohort (AUC, 0.853 [95% CI, .790–.916]; sensitivity 77.5%, specificity 78.4%). The calibration curve for probability of severe COVID-19 showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analyses indicated that nomogram conferred high clinical net benefit. Conclusions Our nomogram could help clinicians with early identification of patients who will progress to severe COVID-19, which will enable better centralized management and early treatment of severe disease.

Background: Severe cytokine storm syndrome (CSS) is considered as the cause of death among critically ill COVID-19 cases. Early identi cation of the high-risk severe cases is crucial to lower the fatality and healthcare costs. Methods: In this study, we retrospectively analyzed the rst and second-week serum levels of IL-6, IL-8, and IL-10 of 50 COVID-19 cases. We calculated the ratios of IL-6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 at 3 rd , 6 th , 9 th , and 12 th days of hospitalization. Results: We collected 50 COVID-19 cases (male 54%, mean age 51.2, range 18-86), including 39 mild cases (78%), 7 severe/recovered cases (14%), and 4 died cases (8%).The ratios of IL 6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 among mild cases were below 27 (the highest, 26.9) along the 4 testing points of two week hospitalization, while we found that the IL-6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 ratios were as high as 187.51 and 225.3 respectively in the death group on 3 rd day with the highest IL-6/IL-10 ratio of 297.28 on the 6 th day of hospitalization. Conclusions: Our preliminary results suggest that the ratios of IL-6/IL-10 and IL-8/IL-10 at the early stage (the rst two weeks) of COVID-19 could be a predictive marker for the disease prognosis, of which the cutoff lines were suggested below 50 for a mild and recoverable severe cases.

2019-nCov has caused more than 80 deaths as of 27 January 2020 in China, and infection cases have been reported in more than 10 countries. However, there is no approved drug to treat the disease. 2019-nCov M pro is a potential drug target to combat the virus. We built homology models based on SARS M pro structures, and docked 1903 small molecule drugs to the models. Based on the docking score and the 3D similarity of the binding mode to the known M pro ligands, 4 drugs were selected for binding free energy calculations. Both MM/GBSA and SIE methods voted for nelfinavir, with the binding free energy of -24.69±0.52 kcal/mol and -9.42±0.04 kcal/mol, respectively. Therefore, we suggested that nelfinavir might be a potential inhibitor against 2019-nCov M pro .author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

A chlorinated coumarin-hemicyanine dye with three potential reaction sites was exploited as fluorescent probe for biothiols. The Cys-induced substitution-rearrangement-cyclization, Hcy-induced substitution-rearrangement, and GSH-induced substitution-cyclizatioin cascades lead to the corresponding amino-coumarin, amino-coumarin-hemicyanine, thiol-coumarin with distinct photophysical properties, enabling Cys and GSH to be selectively detected from different emission channels at two different excitation wavelengths.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.

Background A novel variant of SARS-CoV-2, the Delta variant of concern (VOC, also known as lineage B.1.617.2), is fast becoming the dominant strain globally. We reported the epidemiological, viral, and clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients infected with the Delta VOC during the local outbreak in Guangzhou, China. Methods We extracted the epidemiological and clinical information pertaining to the 159 cases infected with the Delta VOC across seven transmission generations between May 21 and June 18, 2021. The whole chain of the Delta VOC transmission was described. Kinetics of viral load and clinical characteristics were compared with a cohort of wild-type infection in 2020 admitted to the Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital. Findings There were four transmission generations within the first ten days. The Delta VOC yielded a significantly shorter incubation period (4.0 vs. 6.0 days), higher viral load (20.6 vs. 34.0, cycle threshold of the ORF1a/b gene), and a longer duration of viral shedding in pharyngeal swab samples (14.0 vs. 8.0 days) compared with the wild-type strain. In cases with critical illness, the proportion of patients over the age of 60 was higher in the Delta VOC group than in the wild-type strain (100.0% vs. 69.2%, p = 0.03). The Delta VOC had a higher risk than wild-type infection in deterioration to critical status (hazards ratio 2.98 [95%CI 1.29-6.86]; p = 0.01). Interpretation Infection with the Delta VOC is characterized by markedly increased transmissibility, viral loads and risk of disease progression compared with the wild-type strain, calling for more intensive prevention and control measures to contain future outbreaks. Funding National Grand Program, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology, Guangzhou Laboratory

Older age; higher LDH, CRP, RDW, DBIL, BUN; lower ALB on admission correlated with higher odds of severe COVID-19. An effective prognostic nomogram composed of 7 features could allow early identification of patients at risk of exacerbation to severe COVID-19. Abstract BackgroundDue to no reliable risk stratification tool for severe corona virus disease 2019 patients at admission, we aimed to construct an effective model for early identifying cases at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19. MethodsIn this retrospective three-centers study, 372 non-severe COVID-19 patients during hospitalization were followed for more than 15 days after admission. Patients who deteriorated to severe or critical COVID-19 and patients who kept non-severe state were assigned to the severe and non-severe group, respectively. Based on baseline data of the two groups, we constructed a risk prediction nomogram for severe COVID-19 and evaluate its performance. ResultsThe train cohort consisted of 189 patients, while the two independent validation cohorts consisted of 165 and 18 patients. Among all cases, 72 (19.35%) patients developed severe COVID-19. We found that old age, and higher serum lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, the coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width, blood urea nitrogen, direct bilirubin, lower albumin, are associated with severe COVID-19. We generated the nomogram for early identifying severe COVID-19 in the train cohort (AUC 0.912 [95% CI 0.846-0.978], sensitivity 85.71%, specificity 87.58%); in validation cohort (0.853 [0.790-0.916], 77.5%, 78.4%). The calibration curve for probability of severe COVID-19 showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis indicated that nomogram conferred high clinical net benefit. ConclusionOur nomogram could help clinicians to early identify patients who will exacerbate to severe COVID-19, which will enable better centralized management and early treatment of severe patients.

Background The Keap1-Nrf2 signaling pathway regulates host cell defense responses against oxidative stress and maintains the cellular redox balance. Aims&Methods: We investigated the function/molecular mechanisms by which Keap1-Nrf2 complex may influence liver ischemia/reperfusion injury (IRI) in a mouse model of hepatic cold storage (20h at 4 C) followed by orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT). Results The Keap1 hepatocyte-specific knock-out (HKO) in the donor liver ameliorated post-transplant IRI, evidenced by improved hepatocellular function and OLT outcomes (Keap1HKO Keap1HKO; 100% survival), as compared with controls (WT WT; 50% survival; p<0.01). In contrast, donor liver Nrf2 deficiency exacerbated IRI in transplant recipients (Nrf2KO Nrf2KO; 40% survival). Ablation of Keap1 signaling reduced macrophage/neutrophil trafficking, pro-inflammatory cytokine programs, and hepatocellular necrosis/apoptosis, while simultaneously promoting anti-apoptotic functions in OLTs. At the molecular level, Keap1HKO increased Nrf2 levels, stimulated Akt phosphorylation, and enhanced expression of anti-oxidant Trx1, HIF-1 , and HO-1. Pretreatment of liver donors with PI3K inhibitor (LY294002) disrupted Akt/HIF-1 signaling and recreated hepatocellular damage in otherwise IR-resistant Keap1HKO transplants. In parallel in vitro studies, hydrogen peroxide-stressed Keap1-deficient hepatocytes were characterized by enhanced expression of Nrf2, Trx1, and Akt phosphorylation, in association with decreased release of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) in cell culture supernatants. Conclusions Keap1-Nrf2 complex prevents oxidative injury in IR-stressed OLTs through Keap1 signaling, which negatively regulates Nrf2 pathway. Activation of Nrf2 induces Trx1 and promotes PI3K/Akt, crucial for HIF-1 activity. HIF-1 -mediated overexpression of HO-1/CyclinD1 facilitates cytoprotection by limiting hepatic inflammatory responses, and hepatocellular necrosis/apoptosis in PI3K-dependent manner.