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Since the introduction of the Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) regulations in the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) in 2015, the BSR has witnessed high compliance rate. However, a closer look to the situation reveals that the currently preferred compliance strategies depend on low oil price where ship owners shun investments in abatement technologies which may lead into an economic trap in the event of the oil price increase. The research considers incentive provisions for maritime investors who make investment decisions related to clean shipping and maritime fuel management. Traditionally, the financial assessments of these decisions are based on capital budgeting methods comprising cash flow analyses and net present value calculations. The findings reveal that the Real-Option approach represents a more realistic, reliable and promising method for the evaluation of abatement projects, especially under uncertainty and high volatility in material resource markets. The results can be applied to the evaluation of all projects in the maritime industry that depends on the price variation of the underlying asset during a specific period.
In January 2015, the Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECA) regulations changed so that ships that ply the Baltic Sea and the North Sea must no longer use bunker fuel that exceeds 0.1%. After the regulation of many compliances, changes occurred in the maritime sector, especially in the BSR. From studies, the impact is still somewhat negative for some maritime stakeholders such as small-scale fuel producing companies who must produce fuel that complies with the SECA requirements. The impact analysis of their compliance options shows that hydrodesulphurisation option is the most viable option with a commensurable investment return rate, but it is highly risky and expensive considering the incessant plummeting of fuel price and the financial status of such companies. However, even though the situation looks bleak for the small-scale maritime fuel producers, a more in-depth probe revealed a chance for exceptional opportunities for growth and profit through a change of business model to the maritime energy-contracting model (MEC). The study zooms in on a case fuel producing company, empirically considers and compares the MEC model (as a decentralised option) and the hydrodesulphurisation process (as a centralised option) and, if either option is adopted by as a SECA compliance strategy to ensure a rounded and robust choice making-process for maritime stakeholders in such situations.
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