Purpose -Worldwide variations in the population structure are taking place over the next century, and this is expected to have impacts on the whole economic systems, and particularly on the housing market (i.e. price of homes, ownership structure, and supply and demand of residential properties). In this paper, we empirically investigate how the French real estate is affected by both economic and demographic factors.Design/methodology/approach -Starting from the theoretical benchmark model of Takàts (2012), we fist investigate the relationship between collective and individual housing prices dynamics and GDP, total population and old age dependency ratio. Findings -Results from fixed effect regressions on 94 French departments on the period 2000-2013show that real estate prices are significantly and positively affected by the total population number and the total GDP, while they are significantly and negatively affected by the old age dependency ratio (ratio of population aged 60+ to the working population). Furthermore, obtained results and the particular case of France have motivated further research by enriching the baseline model with various financial, real estate, economic and demographic explanatory variables and analyzing our panel in a more segmented way. In all cases, economic impact on real estate market is significant and around the unit_ i.e. 1% increase in GDP leads a 1% increase in housing prices_ while demographic factors seem to have a greater impact on housing market prices. Research limitations/implications -This paper is essentially exploratory and raises a number of questions for further investigation. There is scope to address the research questions using longer data series, which would allow us to study long run relationship between all the factors studied. There is also scope to extend the research to explore and characterize the interactions between key departments of the whole French real estate market.Originality/value -This study, to our knowledge, is conducted for the first time across departments in France.
International audienceThis paper empirically investigates the risk factors of the property swap prices using 4 years of price data relative to the UK Investment Property Databank (IPD) Total Return All Property Swap. The implied forward rates are analyzed with a first difference model to determine its main components. Regarding the risk free rate, the traditional sport-forward relation does not hold for property derivatives. The impact of the risk free rate on forward rates appears as being complex and made of different effects; it varies according to time and maturities. Derivatives prices take into account the smoothing effect of the underlying index and REITs stocks are also relevant to explain these prices. The informational content of the swap is important. The impact of the REITs and of the smoothing decreases with maturities. The risk factor structure obtained is more complex than found in many other studies relative to commodities, securities or bonds. Possible reasons for this phenomenon are discussed
RésuméLa coïncidence entre 1997 et 2007 d'un grand nombre de futurs retraités avec la très forte hausse des prix du résidentiel est-elle fortuite ? En se basant sur des éléments temporels et géographiques, complétés par un modèle de panel, cet article tend à confirmer l'existence d'une causalité démographique. La prise en compte de ces facteurs démographiques, en absolu et en structure, fait de plus apparaitre comme minimes les effets des taux, des revenus, de la construction et du divorce, sur les prix. Dans le contexte actuel de 'papy-boom', le modèle suggère une lente érosion des prix. Toutefois, une question se pose dès aujourd'hui, celle d'une concurrence intergénérationnelle. Alors que près de 75% des retraités sont propriétaires, l'orientation pro 'papy-boomers' de la politique du logement mérite d'être interrogée. Le parc résidentiel valant 6 300 milliards d'euros et ayant enregistré une plus-value de 3 700 milliards, on ne saurait le considérer comme un horsbilan. Crise, déflation, austérité et 'papy-boom' ne seraient-ils pas des synonymes ? AbstractIs the simultaneity, between 1997 and 2007, of a great number of future retired people and the important rise of residential prices, a random effect? In this article, temporal and geographical elements, completed with a panel model, allow answering negatively; a causal relation exists. Taking into account demographic factors such as size and structure of the population leads to a minimization of rates, wages and construction roles in determining residential prices. In the present 'grandpa-boom' environment, the model indicates that this factor could generate a slow price decrease. However, the question of intergenerational competition arises. While 75% of the retired people are owners, the pro 'grandpa-boomers' orientation of the fiscal and housing policies has to be questioned. The residential building stock can be estimated around 6 300 and it registered a value creation of 3 700 billion euros; it cannot be considered as being off balance. Would not deflation, austerity and 'grandpa-boom' be synonyms? Mots-clés : prix immobiliers, démographie, vieillissement, inégalité intergénérationnelle
The paper demonstrates the future of artificial intelligence in the Islamic Banks of Saudi Arabia which introduces with the meaning of artificial intelligence and the benefits which AI may bring with itself in the future. Further, how banks differ in their use of AI from the banks that do not use AI or use original intelligence (Artificial Neural Network) and the acknowledgement of 4 purely Islamic banks in KSA. The literature has analyzed the pros of AI in the Islamic banks taking into consideration machine learning, natural language processing, text mining through neural network of deep learning, algorithmic trading and robotics. It has further analyzed AI’s limitations with regards to its costs, technological unemployment, lack of human creativity and its accountability and regulation. Lastly, the literature has stated AI from the sharia’a point of view. In order to test hypothesis concerning future studies, it was important to collect data using purely Islamic banks. Upon various interpretations concerning AI’s accountability and its impact on sharia’a board, robot’s impact in the long run, AI’s ethics and its uses which people have already encountered and the time period for which AI may imitate human learning in the future- we find that generation Z and millennials are very influenced by AI and have positive views about its scope in the future. However, it is important to note that research limitations include no access to banking authorities due to the recovery after the pandemic of COVID-19 besides.
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