Summary1. Livestock depredation by large carnivores is an important conservation and economic concern and conservation management would benefit from a better understanding of spatial variation and underlying causes of depredation events. Focusing on the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia and the wolf Canis lupus, we identify the ecological factors that predispose areas within a landscape to livestock depredation. We also examine the potential mismatch between reality and human perceptions of livestock depredation by these carnivores whose survival is threatened due to persecution by pastoralists. 2. We assessed the distribution of the snow leopard, wolf and wild ungulate prey through field surveys in the 4000 km 2 Upper Spiti Landscape of trans-Himalayan India. We interviewed local people in all 25 villages to assess the distribution of livestock and peoples' perceptions of the risk to livestock from these carnivores. We monitored village-level livestock mortality over a 2-year period to assess the actual level of livestock depredation. We quantified several possibly influential independent variables that together captured variation in topography, carnivore abundance and abundance and other attributes of livestock. We identified the key variables influencing livestock depredation using multiple logistic regressions and hierarchical partitioning. 3. Our results revealed notable differences in livestock selectivity and ecological correlates of livestock depredation -both perceived and actual -by snow leopards and wolves. Stocking density of large-bodied free-ranging livestock (yaks and horses) best explained people's threat perception of livestock depredation by snow leopards, while actual livestock depredation was explained by the relative abundance of snow leopards and wild prey. In the case of wolves, peoples' perception was best explained by abundance of wolves, while actual depredation by wolves was explained by habitat structure. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that (i) human perceptions can be at odds with actual patterns of livestock depredation, (ii) increases in wild prey populations will intensify livestock depredation by snow leopards, and prey recovery programmes must be accompanied by measures to protect livestock, (iii) compensation or insurance programmes should target large-bodied livestock in snow leopard habitats and (iv) sustained awareness programmes are much needed, especially for the wolf.

There is recent evidence to suggest that domestic livestock deplete the density and diversity of wild herbivores in the cold deserts of the Trans-Himalaya by imposing resource limitations. To ascertain the degree and nature of threats faced by Himalayan ibex (Capra sibirica) from seven livestock species, we studied their resource use patterns over space, habitat and food dimensions in the pastures of Pin Valley National Park in the Spiti region of the Indian Himalaya. Species diet profiles were obtained by direct observations. We assessed the similarity in habitat use and diets of ibex and livestock using Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling. We estimated the influence of the spatial distribution of livestock on habitat and diet choice of ibex by examining their co-occurrence patterns in cells overlaid on the pastures. The observed co-occurrence of ibex and livestock in cells was compared with null-models generated through Monte Carlo simulations. The results suggest that goats and sheep impose resource limitations on ibex and exclude them from certain pastures. In the remaining suitable habitat, ibex share forage with horses. Ibex remained relatively unaffected by other livestock such as yaks, donkeys and cattle. However, most livestock removed large amounts of forage from the pastures (nearly 250 kg of dry matter/day by certain species), thereby reducing forage availability for ibex. Pertinent conservation issues are discussed in the light of multiple-use of parks and current socio-economic transitions in the region, which call for integrating social and ecological feedback into management planning.

Mountain ungulates around the world have been threatened by illegal hunting, habitat modification, increased livestock grazing, disease and development. Mountain ungulates play an important functional role in grasslands as primary consumers and as prey for wild carnivores, and monitoring of their populations is important for conservation purposes. However, most of the several currently available methods of estimating wild ungulate abundance are either difficult to implement or too expensive for mountainous terrain. A rigorous method of sampling ungulate abundance in mountainous areas that can allow for some measure of sampling error is therefore much needed. To this end, we used a combination of field data and computer simulations to test the critical assumptions associated with double-observer technique based on capture-recapture theory. The technique was modified and adapted to estimate the populations of bharal (Pseudois nayaur) and ibex (Capra sibirica) at five different sites. Conducting the two double-observer surveys simultaneously led to underestimation of the population by 15%. We therefore recommend separating the surveys in space or time. The overall detection probability for the two observers was 0.74 and 0.79. Our surveys estimated mountain ungulate populations (± 95% confidence interval) of 735 (± 44), 580 (± 46), 509 (± 53), 184 (± 40) and 30 (± 14) individuals at the five sites, respectively. A detection probability of 0.75 was found to be sufficient to detect a change of 20% in populations of >420 individuals. Based on these results, we believe that this method is sufficiently precise for scientific and conservation purposes and therefore recommend the use of the double-observer approach (with the two surveys separated in time or space) for the estimation and monitoring of mountain ungulate populations.

An increasing proportion of the world's poor is rearing livestock today, and the global livestock population is growing. Livestock predation by large carnivores and their retaliatory killing is becoming an economic and conservation concern. A common recommendation for carnivore conservation and for reducing predation on livestock is to increase wild prey populations based on the assumption that the carnivores will consume this alternative food. Livestock predation, however, could either reduce or intensify with increases in wild prey depending on prey choice and trends in carnivore abundance. We show that the extent of livestock predation by the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia intensifies with increases in the density of wild ungulate prey, and subsequently stabilizes. We found that snow leopard density, estimated at seven sites, was a positive linear function of the density of wild ungulates—the preferred prey—and showed no discernible relationship with livestock density. We also found that modelled livestock predation increased with livestock density. Our results suggest that snow leopard conservation would benefit from an increase in wild ungulates, but that would intensify the problem of livestock predation for pastoralists. The potential benefits of increased wild prey abundance in reducing livestock predation can be overwhelmed by a resultant increase in snow leopard populations. Snow leopard conservation efforts aimed at facilitating increases in wild prey must be accompanied by greater assistance for better livestock protection and offsetting the economic damage caused by carnivores.

The threat posed by large carnivores to livestock and humans makes peaceful coexistence between them difficult. Effective implementation of conservation laws and policies depends on the attitudes of local residents toward the target species. There are many known correlates of human attitudes toward carnivores, but they have only been assessed at the scale of the individual. Because human societies are organized hierarchically, attitudes are presumably influenced by different factors at different scales of social organization, but this scale dependence has not been examined. We used structured interview surveys to quantitatively assess the attitudes of a Buddhist pastoral community toward snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and wolves (Canis lupus). We interviewed 381 individuals from 24 villages within 6 study sites across the high-elevation Spiti Valley in the Indian Trans-Himalaya. We gathered information on key explanatory variables that together captured variation in individual and village-level socioeconomic factors. We used hierarchical linear models to examine how the effect of these factors on human attitudes changed with the scale of analysis from the individual to the community. Factors significant at the individual level were gender, education, and age of the respondent (for wolves and snow leopards), number of income sources in the family (wolves), agricultural production, and large-bodied livestock holdings (snow leopards). At the community level, the significant factors included the number of smaller-bodied herded livestock killed by wolves and mean agricultural production (wolves) and village size and large livestock holdings (snow leopards). Our results show that scaling up from the individual to higher levels of social organization can highlight important factors that influence attitudes of people toward wildlife and toward formal conservation efforts in general. Such scale-specific information can help managers apply conservation measures at appropriate scales. Our results reiterate the need for conflict management programs to be multipronged.