Modern societies are exposed to a myriad of risks ranging from disease to natural hazards and technological disruptions. Exploring how the awareness of risk spreads and how it triggers a diffusion of coping strategies is prominent in the research agenda of various domains. It requires a deep understanding of how individuals perceive risks and communicate about the effectiveness of protective measures, highlighting learning and social interaction as the core mechanisms driving such processes. Methodological approaches that range from purely physics-based diffusion models to data-driven environmental methods rely on agentbased modeling to accommodate context-dependent learning and social interactions in a diffusion process. Mixing agent-based modeling with data-driven machine learning has become popularity. However, little attention has been paid to the role of intelligent learning in risk appraisal and protective decisions, whether used in an individual or a collective process. The differences between collective learning and individual learning have not been sufficiently explored in diffusion modeling in general and in agent-based models of socioenvironmental systems in particular. To address this research gap, we explored the implications of intelligent learning on the gradient from individual to collective learning, using an agent-based model enhanced by machine learning. Our simulation experiments showed that individual intelligent judgement about risks and the selection of coping strategies by groups with majority votes were outperformed by leader-based groups and even individuals deciding alone. Social interactions appeared essential for both individual learning and group learning. The choice of how to represent social learning in an agent-based model could be driven by existing cultural and social norms prevalent in a modeled society.

Estimating the contribution of the forests to carbon sequestration is commonly done by applying forest growth models. Such models inherently use field observations such as leaf area index (LAI), whereas a relevant information is also available from remotely sensed images. This paper aims to improve the LAI estimated from the forest growth model [physiological principals predicting growth (3-PG)] by combining these values with the LAI derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery. A Bayesian networks (BNs) approach addresses the bias in the 3-PG model and the noise of the MODIS images. A novel inference strategy within the BN has been developed in this paper to take care of the different structures of the inaccuracies in the two data sources. The BN is applied to the Speulderbos forest in The Netherlands, where the detailed data were available. This paper shows that the outputs obtained with the BN were more accurate than either the 3-PG or the MODIS estimate. It was also found that the BN is more sensitive to the variation of the LAI derived from MODIS than to the variation of the LAI 3-PG values. In this paper, we conclude that the BNs can improve the estimation of the LAI values by combining a forest growth model with satellite imagery. Index Terms-Bayesian networks (BNs), leaf area index (LAI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), physiological principals predicting growth (3-PG) model.

BackgroundMillions of people worldwide are exposed to deadly infectious diseases on a regular basis. Breaking news of the Zika outbreak for instance, made it to the main media titles internationally. Perceiving disease risks motivate people to adapt their behavior toward a safer and more protective lifestyle. Computational science is instrumental in exploring patterns of disease spread emerging from many individual decisions and interactions among agents and their environment by means of agent-based models. Yet, current disease models rarely consider simulating dynamics in risk perception and its impact on the adaptive protective behavior. Social sciences offer insights into individual risk perception and corresponding protective actions, while machine learning provides algorithms and methods to capture these learning processes. This article presents an innovative approach to extend agent-based disease models by capturing behavioral aspects of decision-making in a risky context using machine learning techniques. We illustrate it with a case of cholera in Kumasi, Ghana, accounting for spatial and social risk factors that affect intelligent behavior and corresponding disease incidents. The results of computational experiments comparing intelligent with zero-intelligent representations of agents in a spatial disease agent-based model are discussed.MethodsWe present a spatial disease agent-based model (ABM) with agents’ behavior grounded in Protection Motivation Theory. Spatial and temporal patterns of disease diffusion among zero-intelligent agents are compared to those produced by a population of intelligent agents. Two Bayesian Networks (BNs) designed and coded using R and are further integrated with the NetLogo-based Cholera ABM. The first is a one-tier BN1 (only risk perception), the second is a two-tier BN2 (risk and coping behavior).ResultsWe run three experiments (zero-intelligent agents, BN1 intelligence and BN2 intelligence) and report the results per experiment in terms of several macro metrics of interest: an epidemic curve, a risk perception curve, and a distribution of different types of coping strategies over time.ConclusionsOur results emphasize the importance of integrating behavioral aspects of decision making under risk into spatial disease ABMs using machine learning algorithms. This is especially relevant when studying cumulative impacts of behavioral changes and possible intervention strategies.

Kurdistan Region (KR) of Iraq has suffered from the drought period during the seasons 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 that affected the human and economic activities of the region. Macro rainwater harvesting (Macro RWH) is one of the techniques that can ensure water availability for a region having limited water resources. This technique is based on Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) was used to estimate the runoff. Rainfall records of Sulaymaniyah area for the period 2002-2012 were studied and an average season was selected (2010-2011). The results of the application of the WMS model showed that about 10.76 million cubic meters could be harvested. The results also showed that the quantity of the harvested runoff was highly affected by rainfall depth, curve number values, antecedent moisture conditions (AMC) and the area of the basins.

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Machine learning (ML) algorithms steer agent decisions in agent-based models (ABMs), serving as a vehicle for implementing behaviour changes during simulation runs. However, when training an ML algorithm, obtaining large sets of micro-level human behaviour data is often problematic. Information on human behaviour is often collected via surveys of relatively small sample sizes. This paper presents a methodology for training a learning algorithm to guide agent behaviour in a spatial ABM using a limited survey data sample. We apply different implementation strategies using survey data and Bayesian networks (BNs). By being grounded in probabilistic directed graphical models, BNs stand out among other learning algorithms in that they can be based on expert knowledge and/or known datasets. This paper presents four alternative implementations of data-driven BNs to support agent decisions in a spatial ABM. We differentiate between training BNs prior to, or during the simulation runs, using only survey data or a combination of survey data and expert knowledge. The four different implementations are then illustrated using a spatial ABM of cholera diffusion for Kumasi, Ghana. The results indicate that a balance between expert knowledge and survey data provides the best control over the learning process of the agents and produces the most realistic agent behaviour.

In the last decade, Deep Learning (DL) has revolutionized the use of artificial intelligence, and it has been deployed in different fields of healthcare applications such as image processing, natural language processing, and signal processing. DL models have also been intensely used in different tasks of healthcare such as disease diagnostics and treatments. Deep learning techniques have surpassed other machine learning algorithms and proved to be the ultimate tools for many state-of-the-art applications. Despite all that success, classical deep learning has limitations and their models tend to be very confident about their predicted decisions because it does not know when it makes mistake. For the healthcare field, this limitation can have a negative impact on models predictions since almost all decisions regarding patients and diseases are sensitive. Therefore, Bayesian deep learning (BDL) has been developed to overcome these limitations. Unlike classical DL, BDL uses probability distributions for the model parameters, which makes it possible to estimate the whole uncertainties associated with the predicted outputs. In this regard, BDL offers a rigorous framework to quantify all sources of uncertainties in the model. This study reviews popular techniques of using Bayesian deep learning with their benefits and limitations. It also reviewed recent deep learning architecture such as Convolutional Neural Networks and Recurrent Neural Networks. In particular, the applications of Bayesian deep learning in healthcare have been discussed such as its use in medical imaging tasks, clinical signal processing, medical natural language processing, and electronic health records. Furthermore, this paper has covered the deployment of Bayesian deep learning for some of the widespread diseases. This paper has also discussed the fundamental research challenges and highlighted some research gaps in both the Bayesian deep learning and healthcare perspective.

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